🧵The EU is finally waking up: Donald Trump was right about China.
Europe’s industrial base could be obliterated in less than a decade by China’s predatory export machine.
Brussels ignored the warnings. Now they’re facing the consequences. 🧵
2/ China is doubling down on massive over-investment and dumping excess capacity on the world while pursuing autarky at home.
Effect: it's exporting deflation and unemployment as a means to stay in power by destroying your job.
The Rhodium Group warns this “China Shock 2.0” is bigger and more sophisticated than the first one that hollowed out America’s Rust Belt.
3/ Europe is the soft target this time.
China runs a €1 billion DAILY trade surplus with the EU. Without action, the deficit could hit €500 billion by 2027.
As Trump’s tariffs blocked China from flooding the U.S. market, the tsunami of cheap goods shifted to Europe — hitting Germany, France, and beyond with devastating force.
4/ The warnings are apocalyptic.
France’s planning agency says 55% of Europe’s manufacturing output (60% in Germany) could become unsustainable.
Entire sectors risk “rapid industrial wipe-out” and “permanent ejection from the market” within a decade.
5/ Europe’s leaders are split: Germany and the Nordics want to cling to open trade with China. France, Italy and others demand the continent wake up.
The French agency calls current defenses “almost useless” and says massive change is “urgent and vital.”
Meanwhile, China’s subsidies (4.4% of GDP) and currency manipulation keep the predatory strategy alive.
6/ This mess is self-inflicted.
Europe made itself dependent on Russian energy and Chinese imports, flooded cities with hostile Islamist migration, and heaped regulations on its own industry while lecturing America.
Trump saw China clearly years ago. Europe dismissed him. Now their industrial heartland is paying the price.
7/ Europe has two bad options:
1. Heavy tariffs (which China will route around unless EU uses Trump's strategy to prevent it)
2. Or trying to devalue the euro.
Neither solves the core problem — China’s refusal to play by normal trade rules.
Trump’s approach worked. The question now is whether Europe has the will — and the time — to admit he was right.
Full analysis on my site. Link in bio!
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