Thread by @Fritschner

Today the Senate is set to take its first votes on the Lindsey Graham Sanctioning Russia Act. With 84 cosponsors it's expected to move fast and pass.

Unfortunately, it's a bad bill that is unlikely to achieve its stated goals.

The bill has 3 major flaws, if you read closely- 🧵

1) It's called the Sanctioning Russia Act, and the press has covered it as a "Russia sanctions" bill.

This is misleading - it's mainly a tariff bill - but let's start with the sanctions, specifically with the massive loophole in them.

Bill text is here-
blumenthal.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/…

The sanctions themselves are half of the bill text, they are no doubt very tough even in view of the many sanctions previously placed on Russia.

HOWEVER!

They include the broadest presidential waiver you'll ever see in legislation of this kind. This means exactly what it says:

Its supporters describe these sanctions as "mandatory" "tough" "historic" "punishing" etc.

The most accurate word to describe these sanctions is "optional."

They are NOT "mandatory," it's 100% at the president's discretion, and he can undo them at will. I will return to this.

2) The bill has a huge new tariff authority with no expiration, delay, or oversight mechanism.

The optional sanctions take up the vast majority of the text, but the tariffs are the real policy hit and they are the key ingredient to why it is moving with presidential backing now.

There are tariffs on Russia and separately on "countries that purchase Russian-origin crude oil or natural gas **OR FACILITATE SANCTIONS EVASION.**" (emphasis mine, I will return to this point)

Here's how those tariffs work (I'll explain more below):

The president via the US Trade Rep makes a list of the top purchasers of Russian oil and natural gas, directly or through third parties, and hit the 5 worst offenders with immediate tariffs up to 100% until they stop, with an exception for countries already trying to stop.

-OR-

It's an incredible "or" -- "Or was among the top 5 countries facilitating Russian oil sanctions evasion" over the past year. Sounds reasonable, we don't want countries evading the Russia sanctions in other ways.

So what are the criteria for this determination?

THERE AREN'T ANY!

There is no limitation or definition, the president can decide which countries this applies to at his discretion and hit them with a 100% tariff.

Other tariff provisions require long investigations before enactment, consultation with Congress, or have sunsets. This one does not.

Would this work under presidents Obama, Biden, Romney, Bush, or future president KamPete Ocasio-NewsKelly MoorPiro? Maybe! However, our present reality is:

3) Donald Trump is the president currently.

We don't have to guess how he'll behave, he has a lengthy history! To review-

Some facts about Donald Trump-
- Long history of Russia sympathy, friend of Putin
- Famously withheld legally mandated assistance to Ukraine to benefit himself
- Recently waived Russian oil sanctions for political reasons
- Has abused literally every single major tariff authority

When I say "abused literally every single major tariff authority" I mean he abused IEEPA (SCOTUS struck down), 232's, 301's, 122's, 201's, and now 338's to shake down other countries for political and/or per$onal benefits.

If you give Trump a tariff authority he WILL abuse it.

For 10+ years Trump consistently and suspiciously resisted sanctioning Russia.

Now he backs the Graham bill that JUST HAPPENS to also give him what would immediately become the largest, least restricted tariff authority in his arsenal.

Doesn't take a genius to figure this out.

Every Dem wants to help Ukraine. Zelenskyy is here and he wants this to pass, the symbolic value is significant even if Trump twists it later.

The good news is the House passed a bipartisan bill - the Ukraine Support Act - that avoids pitfalls 1 and 2 above. It's so much better.

The Ukraine Support Act has proactive support for Ukraine, in addition to sanctions on Russia that are written better.

But it isn't written by or named after a recently deceased Senator.

This imo should not be sufficient reason for Senate Dems to overlook its huge problems.

If they pass this bill, Senate Dems will be handing Trump a new, massive, unchecked tariff authority in the hope that he will use it against Russia to help Ukraine, and that he won't abuse it in ways that raise Americans' prices or enrich himself.

That seems very unwise to me!

PS- correcting previous, the Senate released new text (linked here: ) that keeps sanctions waivers and tariff provisions as above, but adds a sunset.

Some tariff provisions expire after 3 or 6 months; this one is 5 years, long after Trump is gone. Useless. blumenthal.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/…