Thread by @garvanwalshe

Phase 1 agreement. Thread.

If Brexiters want to leave Customs Union and Single Market they will need to accept a radically decentralised uk.

ec.europa.eu/info/departmen…

1. The EU's aim in phase one was to exact compensation for the externalities imposed by UK's decision to leave on the Budget, EU citizens and Northern Ireland

2. It achieved these aims completely. The UK lacked a negotiating position beyond "leaving the single market and customs union"

3. While that is recognised in Para 45, the agreement on Northern Ireland changes what orderly "no deal" means.

4. While that is recognised in Para 45, the agreement on Northern Ireland changes what orderly "no deal" means.

5. This is the result of UK not being able to agree its own position.

6. The UK has made a concession of principle that certain arrangements (regulatory alignment required by GFA) would still be in place even if no deal was agreed.

7. London and the EU/Dublin disagree about what they mean. On a narrow interpretation they just refer to specific areas like energy

8. On a broad interpretation they include goods trade and elements of services trade. (More than just the customs union). Barnier has said alignment is with the "full internal market"

9. The NI institutions can choose to accept divergence between NI and GB - "sea border with Ulster's consent"

10. But in the absence of that consent UK would need to apply that amount of regulatory alignment necessary to preserve the integration of the all-Ireland economy

11. The orderly no deal baseline has shifted some considerable way towards partial de facto SM and CU membership

12. But that level of arrangement isn't possible without some means of oversight. And heavily circumscribes the UK's trade policy. This will return in Phase 2.

13. Alignment will likely serve as a boundary for Phase 2 negotiations. No-dealers now have to offer concrete ways of achieving full 3rd country status.

14. Which means if England is to have an independent trade policy, they will need to persuade NI, and maybe Scotland, to agree separate arrangements.

15. Scotland would happily agree. The DUP will take persuading. But DUP in Northern Ireland more interested in practical compromise than DUP at Westminster.

16. England can still have independent 3rd country hard Brexit, but only by returning UK to a looser pre-1801 and pre-1707 collection of Kingdoms

17. English nationalists can still have an English Brexit. But can't take the full UK with them.

18. Today's agreement will not dissolve the UK straight away, but the UK can only remain a unitary state by staying the Single Market and Customs Union. ENDS