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Thread by @woonomic: "I think we are gonna go to $5500-5700 next, I can't see $7000 holding. Most likely we'll balance a bit, then we'll slide through. Long timef […]"

, 12 tweets, 3 min read
I think we are gonna go to $5500-5700 next, I can't see $7000 holding. Most likely we'll balance a bit, then we'll slide through. Long timeframes here, looking into June for rough timing of this to play out at a best guess. /1
1) NVT Signal is still too high. We need more blockchain transactional activity to justify the current price, or the price to drop to reconcile the difference. To drive up transactional activity in a bear slide is very unlikely IMO. /2
2) Volatility is still too high. I'm looking for a sustained low band of volatility which tends to be a signal for the end of the detox and the next accumulation phase. It's still got some time to ride down. /3
3) This is further supported with Standard NVT being way high, we have time to burn to bring it down. /4
4) we have a Volume Profile cliff below $6800. /5
When I run the above scenarios against detoxing at a $6800-$7000 floor, it seems a very unlikely path we'll play out at the $7000 level. This is given the time we need for NVT and volatility to baseline. /6
I don't necessarily think we'll fall through the 5000s... sure it's a possibility but it doesn't have to. It's not a repeat, it's not Mt Gox and Willybot pushing up price with faked orders, we aren't detoxing from a scam bubble. Technically $5000s is a very strong support band /7
This is like 2014 but Y-axis is just 20x LOL. In some ways the markets are more reliable to forecast in 2018 than in 2014. Data on fundamentals should map more reliably to price as we ain't in the early phase of a few whales randomly pushing things around anymore. /8
I don't concur with the notion that BTC is a market on long time frames, it's an adoption curve - we see climb, consolidation, climb, consolidation. Traditional markets tend to be at saturation, when price action is more sideways. Therefore BTC lends itself to being forecasted /9
2014 had a 2-phase drop. I doubt we'll see that this time around. I think we'll see this center section cut out. Next up cycle will take less time. Q3/Q4 2018 IMO /10
So in summary my best guess... slowish bleed down to $6800... then a steeper slide to $5700, then a levelling out of the drop... then a flat zone. This is an educated guess based on volume profile and fundamental data framing the rate of movement. /11
PS. Not doing ETH BTC giveaways, scammers at large.
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