Thread by @ThatShockratees

Why is this lawyer different from all Trump's other lawyers? Because Giuliani's life is over. His career is over. He's never going to practice law again. He has nothing to lose by making this pitch. And he speaks Trump's NY con man language. But what would he have to gain?

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(oh god, there she goes again.) Yeah. So despite lure of public eye, Giuliani was stone silent for about 18 months after Trump's inauguration. You can tell he's not a guy who's ever shunned media. And he didn't just clam up, he freakin disappeared. What's that about?

To get this, you have to look at the NY Field Office FBI, which "leaked" or "released" (depending on your party) a bogus investigation announcement into "brand new emails" of HRC right before election. There were none. They were copies of old emails. But intended damage was done.

I've often and tirelessly hypothesized that about the time Jason Chaffetz went silent and then mysteriously resigned (early 2017), a grand jury brought back indictments against Giuliani, certain NYFO FBI, and possibly Chaffetz - which were sealed, and remain sealed.

By now, based on indictments which have been publicly analyzed, you understand what those charges would be, right? Election law violations. Conspiring to interfere with an election, etc. And whatever statute applies to the FBI leak itself. Can't prove this but makes sense.

There are several reasons to seal an indictment. But there's only one I know of to seal an indictment, and then engage in NO PURSUIT WHATSOEVER of arrests or even interrogations to flip the charged felons. Because you want their mouths to stay shut until you're ready.

Based on that analysis, looks like whoever brought indictments (they pre-date Mueller but are likely aligned) was ready few weeks ago. For what? Probably for Rudy to come into the fold, and make plea deal. Also under seal. That's what unleashed him. And also gave him motivation.

You know by now how plea deals work, right? First accused makes a "proffer." Tells LEO "this information I will provide in exchange for leniency." But not usually in one go, in serious crimes. The deal is conditioned on ongoing cooperation, between indictment/plea and sentencing.

So here, I posit 1) Giuliani indicted early 2017, 2) sealed to keep him from meddling 3) rest of election interference case (🇷🇺/Trump campaign part) readied for launch, 4) Giuliani invited in to tie up loose ends in that part with own plea and cooperation.

So here's the fun part: what ongoing cooperation has Giuliani offered to prosecutors? And what role does media campaign, and the approach he's taken to it, play in his own drama? He just seems this nonsensical Puck. But ppl always have a self-motivation that makes sense to them.

Here's my theory, which gets more evidence to back it every day: Giuliani's initial silly-sounding promise: "end the investigation quickly?" That was cover story for his real promise to LEO - best efforts to reel big fish Trump in for interview. cnn.com/2018/05/20/pol…

Mueller doesn't NEED Trump interview - let's be clear. But it wd be a helpful piece of PR, and would likely wrap some loose ends. So let's look at how Giuliani's looney-seeming approach to TV spots furthers this narrative. And I'll also tie in another narrative abt GOP nat party.

"Rudy confesses Trump to a bunch of illegal conduct! Every effing day!" Yes, he does. Clumsily. Deniably. But he does. Yet, he also praises him in the very Trump-ese that turns POTUS into a cuddly mollified baby.

I'm no Rudy fan. But if I were trying to motivate that 🍊💩🤡 to talk to SC, that's how I'd do it. Close a net around him, disguised with flattery and show of loyalty. He's playing Trump's game, in Trump's language. Why does Trump let him go on with it? That's the question.

One hypothesis is that Trump doesn't see it. But I doubt that. Second guess is that Trump sees it, but is so impressed by Rudy's con man skills that he can't help wanting to see how it plays out. Possible, but discarded that also. Here, I have to link in the GOP narrative.

Imagine a Venn diagram of Trump/Russia with three circles:
- Things that involve Russia
- Things that involve Trump
- Things that involve national GOP, senators, representatives, state party ops
The center area where all 3 intersect is the terrifying one. Highest level felonies.

Set Rudy and Trump crime fam aside for a spell. What would national GOP's highest motivation be? It's an organization. Can be criminally charged. Officials can too. From PR perspective, GOP would like zero culpability, but given Torshin and money trail isn't going to get that.

So GOP would like to move the overlap of its Venn circle the farthest away from the place where Trump Crime Family's circle and the Russia circle intersect. Hopefully, no overlap at all. To pure statutory crimes with no legal or PR treason element. Outside the election plot.

You see this causes national GOP's interests and Trump's interests to conflict? In any criminal investigation, how do you make yourself look LESS guilty? That's right. By making someone else look MORE guilty. So GOP's motivated to pin stuff on Trump now, if it gets them off hook.

And Rudy's ties to the GOP are far stronger than ties he might have to Trump. Past or present. So what I see likeliest is: Rudy's guiding Trump (and fam) to partially confess, resign, and take some kind of deal that exonerates GOP at large. I call this "Operation Guided Landing."

As I often repeat, I'm not a leaker, and I don't have inside sources. These are theories based on public info. But when a theory explains most if not ALL of the facts, including those that seem irrational under any other theory, it's usually the correct one.

So back to question: "Why does Trump let Rudy do what he's doing?" Think like Trump. Loyalty is everything. If Rudy's been indicted, he will have told Trump bc prof code requires him to disclose it. But he'd spin it: "I'm one of you! They're after me too! I'm on your side."

Rudy would, from his own self-interest, tell Trump something like this: "Neither of us have any way out. We're both going to be convicted of something. But you still have some choices and options to control what path it takes. I can help you keep some of your popularity."

Not like guy under indictment cares about lawyer code of ethics, but that wd cover Rudy's disclosure of conflict of interest, and also likely be very appealing to Trump the crime boss. Meanwhile, pinning Russia closer to Trump Crime Family history tends to unlink them from GOP.

Here you see Cohen moving into the camera frame, propping up the narrative that is most separate from the national GOP, and also getting foreshadowed heavily as Trump's eventual No. 1 fall guy. Not finished with this next part yet. But join me in listening closely as it develops.

One narrative challenge, which I think I've resolved, is "Why hasn't GOP dismissed Cohen yet as dep finance chair?" Normally, orgs want to distance from someone with obvious criminal or civil liability. But that's early in the game.

As process moves on, counter-incentives emerge. If a trial involves GOP money case, it's easier to "point to the empty chair" (blame all on Cohen if he's not there to defend himself.) But worse would be 2 separate cases, where you're the empty chair and Cohen's pointing to you.

Mueller's smart like that. Separate cases are being spun off. And we need more public facts to parse this aspect out. But I'm still comfortable with my theory, backed by prior tweets over past year-plus, that "Operation Guided Landing" is underway and Rudy is key to it.

As always, steal this book, my influencer and media friends. I have no Patreon. I'm anonymous. No credit required.