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Ollie Richardson @O_Rich_
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Thread concerning the content of the article below authored by @ejmalrai:

1. I will firstly stress that I don’t contest the information presented in the article itself, but I believe that some wider context is very much needed in order to arrive at sensible conclusions.
2. As I understand it, the premise of the article is that Russia has achieved all it wanted to achieve in Syria concerning ending the war. And thus, Russia now wants to kickstart wide negotiations, which will probably take time. However, some fronts are still open.
3. So Damascus is determined to liberate all its territory. Okay. This is both expected and understandable. All sides, both allies and belligerents, are aware of this determination. The “problem”, apparently, is that Russia won’t provide assistance in liberating the south.
4. This southern area is essentially occupied by belligerents (Israel/US). And they don’t like Assad’s plans to confront this sphere of influence. Okay, this is understandable too (regardless of whether it is legal or morally correct, which, btw, it isn’t).
5. In fact, looking at Syria today, it is divided into 4 spheres of influence: US (north east); Turkey (rest of the north); Russia (Latakia); Israel (south). The rest is more under Assad’s wing, which also includes Iran, which helps as needed (legally).
6. Was the division of Syria into spheres of influence unavoidable? My answer: no. Today, in conditions of fourth generation warfare, geopolitics/int relations is like a pool of water. Particles of water are displaced (moved from one place to another) via impetus (energy).
7. One of the results of the propelling of globalism was this new model of int relations. If countries are going to be connected in many intricate, complex ways, then the action/reaction paradigm will play an even more pivotal role. Here is an example:
8. British citizens voted for “Brexit” in 2016. It is now 2018 and it looks even more likely that it will not happen as was planned (or as voters voted for). This is because the knock-on effect of such a move would affect every single country economically.
9. Thus, Britain, which is now floating in the air since Trump prefers to extort others in order to receive 1-sided deals, finds itself having to stall and buy time because as things stand it has no place in the emerging “multipolar” world order.
10. Britain was tied to NATO, the EU, a number of economic institutions, think tanks, NGOs, etc that are all based on the old model of US saying jump and others asking “how high”. This model has now been shattered, and Britain is lost, especially financially.
11. So, coming back on topic, today all actions in int relations, especially ones that allude to geopolitical changes of a tectonic strength, affect every single person on this planet. What does this mean? It means that he who dares is responsible not just for their own citizens.
12. So let's use the example of Russia. Russia has been under attack by the Western world for over 100 years. The attempts to carve up the Russian world never subsided during all this time. Kahn, Napoleon, Hitler, etc all failed. And there is a reason why.
13. Russia survived WW1, civil war, a revolution, and then WW2 all in the space of under 30 years. It went from ruins to launching rockets into space. For comparison, Ukraine went from being the #1 economy in the post-Soviet space to being poorer than Ethiopia in the same time.
14. So now fast forward to Syria. I don’t need to explain what Russia has done, it’s visible for all to see. But it is regrettable that Russia’s decision to perhaps take a neutral position (in line with int law) concerning southern Syria is being perceived as a “betrayal”.
15. Let’s come back to “spheres of influence”. The situation we have today is that warfare as we know it is changing. And this is because the act of injecting energy into sensitive areas (like the Middle East) entails much more risk than it did, say, 50 years ago.
16. Russia has nuclear weapons (for defensive reasons to deter Anglo aggression); America has them (for offensive, bullying purposes); and other nations with less influence also have them (for general survival purposes). This is an indisputable fact.
17. Such a situation creates a standoff, and thus new ways of achieving foreign policy aims and objectives are needed that bypass this high risk game. Enter proxies. They act as shields. America & Co risk nothing by helping create ISIS/AQ.
18. More people die in America from banal things like falling asleep in the bath with an electrical device than because of an ISIS terrorist. And America doesn’t mind when they die, because they take the evidence of sponsoring terrorism into “paradise” with them.
19. All players in the Middle East are subject to this new geopolitical reality. Such is the consequence of globalism. All sides have the potential to make things either spiral out of control or visa-versa - towards peace. But this also changes the % of risk involved.
20. Israel has the means to nuke Syria; Russia has the means to forcibly remove America from Syria; Iran has the means to remove Israel from the planet; America has the means to end life as we know it; even Saudi Arabia can rock the boat enough to capsize it.
21. But the key word here is “can”. None of the examples I gave have happened, because these decisions involve such high risk that it would create a reality that calls the very existence of the “high-roller” nation into question. It is not even a zero-sum game - it is suicide.
22. So instead an equilibrium is created, where all sides are aware of what the others CAN do, but also understand the element of risk involved and thus are aware of why certain things either happen or don’t happen. What can seem completely irrational is in reality very rational.
23. Israel is neither stupid nor suicidal. It’s strikes in Syria are low risk but ultimately serve no purpose even in the short term. If it is about sending messages, then Hezbollah learnt nothing new. It seems like Tel Aviv is fighting for survival.
24. But it must be remembered that Israel was created by the western world, so it is dependent in many ways, especially in terms of its security. In fact, it basically lives off hand outs from the western tax payer. So Tel Aviv isn’t exactly an independent actor.
25. Iran has no interest in stoking the fire in Syria. It simply wants to live in peace, but it understands that it will always be in the crosshairs of Salafism/Wahhabism/Zionism. Thus measures are taken and deterrents are demonstrated.
26. Syria just wants to return to the pre-2011 situation, and ideally with a reduction in the influence of the Salafism/Wahhabism/Zionism bloc. So thats why it’s understandable that Damascus wants to liberate every square inch. This is a spiritual matter, a matter of justice.
27. Turkey put its eggs into one basket (NATO, America, EU) but realised shortly after the Syrian war began that this path leads into the abyss, so changes (rather drastic) were made (Davutoğlu was fired). I.e., the ship is turning 180°, so any sudden movements can be grave.
28. And now Russia: the main problem for Moscow is the western world’s attempts to destroy it (carving it up like roadkill). This puts the very existence of the Russian nation under threat. The way in which the West tries to destroy Russia today is different to the 1940’s.
29. If before Nazi Germany could launch Operation Barbarossa and try to literally annex Russia, today Russia is more than ready to liquidate any invader the moment it cross the border. I am talking about complete and utter annihilation.
30. Every single country with a basic level of education knows this. NATO (not a country, but a bloc) knows it, the White House knows it, Israel knows it, Turkey knows it. And this is why today no nation dares to even try to defeat Russia in a military way.
31. So instead America tries to destroy Russia from the inside - harakiri style - by subverting Russian society and thus pushing Russian people into killing other Russian people. It’s like a psychological Operation Barbarossa. So far, it hasn’t worked as America had hoped.
32. But this doesn’t mean that America will simply rely on methods of what the West calls “hybrid war” (how funny - they accuse Russia of doing what they themselves do). There is a need for tangible pressure too - theatres of military operations.
33. America tries to export the terrorist package from the Middle East to the Caucasus and to places like Chechnya. This is a copy and paste of the Yugoslavia scenario. They also try to inject some elements of Op Gladio into Ukraine and Belarus. Nazi and jihadist proxies.
34. But the West is forced to convert even these actions into methods of “hybrid war” when the Russian border is crossed, because otherwise the FSB will liquidate the Ukrainian saboteur or takfiri militant on the spot. Thus, inside Russia itself there is another process.
35. The West creates NGOs that try to take the baton from the hands of “heroes” who managed to “cross” the Russian border (not literally, but in spirit) and to sabotage Russia from inside: whether it is Red vs White, Liberal vs Communist, etc.
36. Why am I describing all of this? Because there is clearly a need to outline the wider context that Russia is manoeuvring in. It’s not just a case of liberating South Syria and handing the keys to Daraa to Assad, which is the Hollywood happy ending many seemingly want.
37. Of course, this event is very desirable and would bring some much needed light to the gloomy room, but it’s just not that simple. Israel, Turkey, America, etc all came into Syria for a reason. And here we are talking about events that are a century in the making.
38. What has happened in Syria over the past decade stems from roots that were already planted long ago. I recall that @EHSANI22 wrote a magnificent thread about how the war in Syria was quite predictable, either due to socio-economic factors or the birth of Wahhabism itself.
39. So, why is Russia being blamed so much as of late? Do the blamers have tunnel vision? Are they aware of Russian history? Have they themselves lived through trials and tribulations? Can this Disney “that’s all folks” ending even become a reality?
40. I argue that today the past 100 years of global order is being ripped apart at the seams. And in reality influence over countries was always akin to a tug of war anyway. It’s just that the ways in which influence is exerted has changed. From military to diplomacy.
41. This change happened not because of economic reasons, and not because there is some moral high ground to occupy. But simply because the human soul is SO TIRED of this paradox of bombing for peace. Somebody has to say “enough is enough”, or “what have you done?”.
42. And I, as a neutral person, affirm that only Russia can take this burden upon itself. The suffering it has endured in the last 100 years alone and the experiences of genetics gives Russia the backbone it needs to carry out this task. No other nation has this.
43. Someone body has to stop shooting, and just because you stopped, it doesn’t mean that you lost. In fact, in today’s reality it means that you are in a position of strength, like Ali vs Tyson (rope-a-dope). But the problem is that this victory needs time to come into fruition.
44. And most social media users (as I explained here:…) are impatient. They want everything now; they want the Hollywood ending because they, apparently, are entitled to it. Sorry, life’s not like that. YOU have to work for it just as much as everyone else.
45. So, Russia will be blamed, accused of “betrayal”, spat at, and Putin, as the head of State, will be called every insult under the sun. “Father” is always to blame, because the child was burdened with being responsible for their own life.
46. But behind Russia’s decision to give impetus to wide negotiations in Syria (and to let Syria itself sort out the South of its lands - after all, it is likely that one day Syria will have to sort its own problems out without Russia's intervention) is historical lessons.
47. I advice to everyone who reads this thread to watch the movie “Come and see” ( Иди и смотри). It concerns what the villages of Belarus had to live through under Nazi occupation. Perhaps after watching this movie Russia’s actions today in Syria may become more understandable.
48. Last tweet: 4 Russian soldiers recently died in Syria in Deir Ezzor. I suspect that the US was involved, as always, just to spite Russia. They, ultimately, gave their lives so we can at least stand a chance of repairing this enormous crisis of the human condition.
a correction: was it *avoidable?
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