Kiva Dickinson Profile picture
Jun 6, 2018 9 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/ Powerful analogy between retail and media landscape. In short, as distribution of content becomes commoditized, it’s the content itself that starts to matter, so as a #cpg retailer you must evolve to meet your customer’s needs.
2/ Importantly - this doesn’t mean physical retail is toast -- it rather means retailers need to double down on what they’re good at, and what Amazon can’t do. @ryan_caldbeck rightly says that’s experience, which means discovery. It also means curation...
3/ For decades retail was about better cost and convenience, which meant one stop shopping: why would I drive all over town when I could buy my produce, pet supplies, clothing and patio furniture all in one place? This drove bigger boxes, wider selections.
4/ Eventually selection becomes infinite as a digital marketplace (an “Everything Store”) can always carry a wider assortment than a physical box. Just like Netflix gave alternative to leaving home for a movie, Amazon lets you avoid an errand run.
5/ Amazon and Netflix both embrace limitless selection, the advantage that comes from no physical capacity constraint. But that comes at a cost: they may provide reviews and recommendations, but they don’t actually curate for their customers.
6/ Issue is people don’t thrive on infinite choice. They want help making tough decisions, especially ones that require research. “Will I enjoy this movie?” - low stakes decision; “Should I eat this?” - much higher stakes and more challenging decision.
7/ Apply that to a grocery store — it’s not just about discovering innovative products your consumers will like, it’s also about removing what they shouldn't have — stale brands that haven’t innovated, products that aren’t good for your customer.
8/ Curation means being customer first, knowing their needs and making their life easier and better. Having the courage to take certain product off shelf may sting short-term but will earn trust and build a brand that matters long-term.
9/ For inspiration, look at who is innovating in CPG retail: @credobeauty who vets the ingredients of every product they sell, or @ErewhonMarket whose tagline is “if it’s here it’s good for you”.

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More from @KivaDickinson

Feb 24, 2023
State of the venture market in CPG 🧵
Last week we spent time on-site with a number of our LPs to discuss the dynamics in CPG venture

Main questions asked:

How much has CPG tracked tech in slowdown of deal activity and valuation decline?

What is the “right” discount from 2021 prices?

How close are we to the… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
To discuss the differences from tech we first tried to unpack the domino effect that happened in tech:

Summer ‘21 inflation print ⬆️
> interest rate hikes ⬆️
> WACC in DCF models ⬆️
> implied public tech valuations ⬇️
> exit assumptions in VC models ⬇️
> entry price in new VC… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Read 13 tweets
Nov 23, 2021
Health and wellness is an absolute megatrend, and we're still in the early innings

Tens of billions of equity value will be created this decade in companies that don't exist yet

This comes from 4 key factors

(Thread)
1/ Factor #1: The wellness economy is absolutely booming worldwide

People are demanding better products to put in, on and around their bodies

And better experiences that make healthier living easier and more fun
2/ Wellness has culturally surpassed traditional luxury brands as the way younger people want to spend and exhibit their wealth

This is a massive generational shift
Read 16 tweets
Aug 31, 2021
Valuations are rising across emerging CPG which forces us to reconsider our frameworks

Investors are naturally complaining (as we do) but what is happening here?

(Thread)
1/ First off, consumer products seed and series A investors typically use two methods of valuation:

A. Multiple of revenue
B. “What do you need to believe?” analysis
2/ Multiple of revenue typically means applying acquisition multiples in the category to your current revenue

E.g. Hershey is your most likely acquirer and they typically pay 3-5x LTM sales at acquisition so you should raise at 3-5x sales today
Read 18 tweets
Aug 9, 2021
One of the most important lessons I’ve learned since founding Selva Ventures is the close relationship between fear and conviction

(Thread)
First of all, fear is everywhere and inevitable

It’s the product of combining uncertainty and care about an outcome

It’s the root emotion of a handful of derivative emotions we see everyday: anxiety, anger, frustration, insecurity, arrogance
Most unpleasant interactions I have with people can be explained by fear (if I can be empathetic enough to ask myself “why?”)

Most people that I’m drawn to have managed their fears better than others: they know who they are and they play the long game
Read 12 tweets
Jul 27, 2021
I have one super high-conviction category bet in CPG that always invites a ton of skepticism and pushback: Non-alcoholic beer, wine and spirits

3 years ago I was a skeptic but now I'm convinced

Many people don’t believe me, but I think it’s going to be huge

Thread 👇
1/ In the past few years people have finally begun to apply their health & wellness mindset to their drinking habits, with the result being low sugar, low ABV and low additive replacements

I’ve written about this here:
2/ This trend has already spawned big winners in low sugar (White Claw / Truly) and low ABV (Aperol)

It has also led consumers to question why they default to drinking in certain situations and then regret it later
Read 14 tweets
Jun 2, 2021
My bet on the next category in consumer packaged goods to produce a billion dollar brand: Sleep

Here’s why 👇👇👇
1/ Health and wellness has historically meant diet and exercise, but that misses a critically important third leg of the stool in our physical well-being:

The ~8 hours of quality sleep we need each night
2/ The sleep economy has three core components: hardware, nutrition and tracking

They work in tandem: hardware for optimal comfort, nutrition for onset and ritual, tracking for a feedback loop of insights
Read 16 tweets

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