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Daniel Ashman @dashman76
, 23 tweets, 5 min read Read on Twitter
1. Winning #MAGA thread.

Irrefutable logic that @realDonaldTrump is working towards prosecuting the subversive enemies of America.

I use analysis based on professional poker.
2. I used to be a professional poker player. At an elite level. You can look it up.
3. Here are winning poker rules:

-Do not play based on emotion
-Trust logic
-Pay attention to the little details

That's how to win big.
4. In poker, you can get into tough spots for long stretches of time. Everyone gets emotionally demoralized.

LOSERS will act on it.

They will push the action out desperation because they need to win now. It's called tilt.
5. The moment Trump begins tilting, and taking premature legal action to appease a (justifiably) desperate electorate, is the moment we get crushed. Absolutely destroyed.

We are against killer sharks. They don't forgive these mistakes.
6. So what's going on with Trump? Is his administration fighting through a tough spot and biding their time?

Or is he misplaying and we are getting steamrolled?

And is there a way we can answer affirmatively without relying on blind faith? - yes
7. We will hand read Trump and see what he holds.

What is this inscrutable man thinking!
8. Pro tip... you can instantly tell who is a bad poker hand reader by how they describe a hand. Beginners leave out information and look at isolated chunks out of context and focus on only the most recent "flashy" actions.
9. In truth, sometimes the biggest flashy bets in poker are the most boring. They are inevitable conclusions. The hand had taken on certain dynamics and there was NO altering how it played out.
10. The pro looks at the hand differently. He goes back to the beginning of the hand. He looks at all the pieces, in context, and puts them together. Even, and especially, the littlest of details.
11. I love Sherlock Holmes.

Here, he corrects an amateur: "That's not quite right is it. In fact, the littlest details are by far the most important."

12. Poker example: X first to act raises, Y re-raises, X calls. Flop check/call. Turn check/call. River check

Flop, turn, river action indicate X is weak. He keeps checking.

Pre-flop action says it all. He has very strong hand. And played deceptively. He built a pot.
13. So back to Trump. How did we arrive at today's messy situation?

Back to the beginning...

We are here because over a year ago, Trump nominated Sessions, Rosenstein and Wray.
14. Before nominating Sessions and Rosenstein, Trump knew that his enemies were gunning for him.

He had already threatened to put Hillary in jail.

Trump's pick for AG and Deputy AG were two of the most important decisions in his entire life.
15. If Trump had overlooked the importance of those picks, which is impossible, but just assume he had...

By the time the Mueller probe was going, and he had fired Comey, he would know how important FBI Director pick was.

His fate, and family, and America fate depended on it
16. Did Trump make a mistake on Sessions? AND Rosenstein? AND Wray?

Did he choose the three worst candidates possible for the three most important jobs there are?

Is Trump an outright moron? Is he our stupidest politician ever?
17. You tell me. How many naive men spend decades doing billion dollar deals in cut throat New York real estate?
18. How many bad politicians do this?

19. Trump is a brilliant politician, and savvy businessman. No way around it.

Personally, I just like hearing him talk. He doesn't try to SOUND smart. He actually is smart.
20. Trump wants Sessions+Rosenstein+Wray there. That is the tip off. He is coming from a position of immense strength. Ever since then, he has masked his hand, it's noise, purposeful deception.
21. In poker we call this "pot control."

Trump WANTS to build a pot.

He could have "raised" earlier on and scared people off. Instead he is using deception to build this pot as big as possible.

People build big pots when they hold monster cards...
22. Also, the amount of deception you need to use depends on the skill level of your opponent.

If Trump had dumb weak opponents he wouldn't have to use deception.

But if you are fighting 30 years of Swamp you need to use more deception.
23. Conclusion:

If you want to know what Trump has then look at the little details. Not the flashy moves which are purposeful deceptions.

VERY STRONG HAND

Follow logic. Not emotions. Indictments coming.

End.
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