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EHSANI2 @EHSANI22
, 8 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
#Syria Update

1-State: Feels it won but seems lacking in credible economic solutions going forward.
2- Opposition: Still dazed, confused & seemingly delusional about its ability to gain through politics what it failed to do militarily
3-Kurds: Hit pause button. Wait & see mode
#Syria update Continued:

Foreign Actors: The U.S is going nowhere anytime soon. Keep territory given limited financial burden. Continue the balancing act between Ankara and the Kurds. Appease the pro-Israel / Anti-Iran camp. Strategy Archives multiple goals w limited investment
#Syria Update Continued:

Foreign Actors: Russia has met all originally set objectives. Damascus survived. Moscow is an important player in the region. Ability to maintain strong relationship with Ankara offers larger geopolitical opportunities
#Syria Update - Continued

Foreign Actors: Turkey has for now carved for itself large area of influence both geographically & politically. Longer term, has to deal with current set of armed groups but Ankara will undoubtedly continue to be significant player in final outcome
#Syria Update Continued:

Foreign Actors: Iran faces renewed domestic economic hardship. Though it won’t leave Syria, its role will naturally continue to decline as war’s intensity recedes. Israel will continue to exaggerate Tehran’s role as part of its “take zero risk” policy
#Syria Update Continued :

Foreign Actors: Hizbollah remains an undisputedly powerful, agile and dependable ally of Damascus. This role is unlikely to change for the foreseeable future
#Syria Update Continued:

Foreign Actors: Assumption is that ISIS, Nusra, HTS and others are either defeated, contained or will enter a long coma biting their time. Not one of the groups has for now the ability to compete with the other more powerful State actors on the scene
#Syria Update Continued:

Foreign Actors: Gulf Actors have had significant setback when it comes to their influence as Armed Groups suffered losses. Saudi/Qatar dispute hasn’t helped their collective case. Damascus May one day exploit such schisms but nothing seems imminent
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