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Thread by @PeteNorth303: "1. The ultra brexiters are going all out for their WTO option Brexit. They are gradually pushing the narrative that anything including a wit […]" #Brexit

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1. The ultra brexiters are going all out for their WTO option #Brexit. They are gradually pushing the narrative that anything including a withdrawal agreement is a betrayal of Brexit and their thicko followers are buying it. This is dangerous.
2. As a Brexiter of long standing I know these players quite well. They are all indoctrinated in the ultra libertarian deregulation fantasies and the fact that just about every business group says they don't want deregulation it does not have any impact on their delusions.
3. As to their followers, these are the intellectually subnormal grunters who genuinely do think the Eu is a modern manifestation of the USSR. They're not well. Now don't get me wrong, I'm still a leaver but these people are fucking loony tunes.
4. As it happens I really do understand the impulse. As a nihilist I would rather enjoy telling the EU to go fuck itself and would actually enjoy watching the chaos unfold. Best TV since 9/11. You can't buy that sort of horrific entertainment. But it's just not a good idea.
5. I have just enough self-awareness to realise that a catastrophic Brexit is not in my own interests and your misery is ultimately mine too. Mortgages and bills have to be paid and as much as having a job sucks it beats the alternative of living in a disused motorcycle garage.
6. You see, if the UK leaves without a deal we are not subject to new barriers erected by the EU. These will be existing barriers that all third countries face. This would happen overnight and all the UK authorisations and certifications become null and void.
7. The reason it isn't so bad for other countries to trade is because they don't do the same amount of trade in goods and especially not services - and much of our trade only exists because of the single market facilitation. It's worth in the region of £250bn a year.
8. This isn't voodoo economics or guesswork based on financial projections. This is purely a case of whether you have permission to do business or not. This is outlined in a number of EU Notices to Stakeholders...

ec.europa.eu/info/brexit/br…
9. The language is quite clear. On exit day without alternative provisions the UK becomes a third country in law and there are no WTO rules that compel the EU to grant us any preferential access whatsoever.
10. You would only consider doing this if you had a plan to join something bigger and better but thus far all we've had from the ultras is illiterate grunting about trading with the rest of the world - global Britain and "fwee twade".
11. Now I'm not exactly sure about this but I'm reasonably certain that Botswana has no particular interest in UK made regional Hitachi trains and Nigeria is not known for its high demand for Airbus wings. Our economy is high tech, high value.
12. Deals with the Commonwealth states are all very well but these tend to be small markets less than 2m in size and low income. So what about CANZUK? The "White Commonwealth". It's Daniel Hannan's idea so it's obviously bollocks.
13. As ye know Canada has a deep and comprehensive agreement with the EU so its locked into harmonising a lot of its rules with the EU so there is bog all point in us diverging. Canada is the man in the middle of the US & EU and has to configure according to the preferred market.
14. That already causes them problems and they are not going to make diversions for the UK. They will produce to EU standard and send goods there to be re-exported. I have a really boring blog post on this but you won't read it.
15. As to Aus/NZ, they are on the other side of the planet. That tends to limit JIT supply chain distribution and fresh produce exports. They're also tiny by contrast with the single market and they will be making similar regulatory commitments to the EU in due course.
16. Trade turns on detail. It isn't a straightforward process and it isn't fast. Every deal has an impact on the next and so every single decision has to be weighted against existing deals to avoid "preference erosion". Look it up.
17. I could do this all day. I'm not a trade professional but I do know expertise when I see it and I don't see a single expert anywhere on the Brexit side. Certainly not among the Brexit blob. All we get is hope & change rhetoric from doe-eyed think tank girlies (of both sexes).
18. As to the trade theories of Professor Minford, absolutely nobody in the realm of international trade nor anyone remotely involved in the regulatory process takes him seriously. He's a crank.
19. The impulse to leave and bin EU trade regulations is superficially appealing but in actuality regulation is a trade facilitator. You only dump it if there is a viable real world alternative. And there isn't. I wish there were because I'd quite like total freedom from the EU.
20. There is, however, no scenario where we don;t end up with EU influenced rules simply because that is the way the world works. You gravitate to your nearest and largest regulatory superpower for the liberation of regional commerce.
21. You can argue a philosophical case for sovereignty but this is a continuum question faced by every country on the planet. every trade deal requires some form of formalised compromise and that's how it is. You don't have to like it but that's modernity for you.
22. The only way we are going to get absolute sovereignty is if the EU ceases to exist along with the WTO - which is what Trump would like but then you have an unrestrained world trade war and any hope of a level playing field goes out of the window.
23. That means unfairly subsidised competition, predatory practices from China, surplus dumping and price gouging. The WTO is flawed but is one of the major achievements of the last century and it is in our interests for it to succeed.
24. With that in mind there is a geopolitical interest in remaining the closest of trade allies with the EU because Trumps promises aren't worth a damn, India is corrupt as all hell and China is playing its own dark games. I'm no fan of the EU but prefer it as an ally.
25. The EU may be an insufferably technocratic mess but but on the scale of evil it's nowhere close to India and China. The UK belongs in the European trade sphere and Efta is our best bet to ensure we have a voice in it. This is bigger than trade. This is global politics.
26. More to the point, the opposition to the EEA solution is largely irrational. It's a culture war because the parliamentary advocates are duplicitous remoaners acting in bad faith. I understand the suspicion but the EEA is still the most intelligent solutions by a country mile.
27. Theresa May needs to face down the Brextremists because they are playing stupid, dangerous games and they cannot be appeased. They will call any rational measure for an orderly Brexit a betrayal so why not let them whine - since they are going to do it anyway?
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