Thread by @marcambinder

A week out from publication of The Brink, about NATO’s almost-accidental war with the USSR in 1983. Up at 3am to do East Coast radio interviews. @WICN905 is first! No shame here in asking you fine people to buy the book. It’s a bracing read and it’s relevant. #newbooks #nato

The reviews have been humbling. The book shows how Reagan figured out how to handle the Soviets without compromising his principles, how spies telling truths saved the day, how intelligence and diplomacy mattered and why we must pay urgent attention (even today) to nuke cmd/ctrl

There are similarities between Reagan and @realDonaldTrump - and significant differences, too. Reagan prepared, hard, and continuously and ceaselessly (if imperfectly executed) sought to understand what the USSR truly feared and needed from arms control agreements.

Real brinksmanship was the result of a mismatch between his political objectives and the unrelenting machine that the nuclear command and control system (and its priests at the time) had put together. Aligning the two and building domestic support for treaties was the hard part.

Huge differences between now/then: Trump has an affinity for Russia/Putin and is hostile (!) to NATO. But both countries rampaging forward with nuclear modernization. Arsenals get more deadly. Trigger fingers, more itchy. Decision/deliberation are subordinate to hasty responses.

and the US has still obligations to defend NATO from aggression. Those will outlast this President. In the Baltics. In Crimea. In Britain, even.

BTW: Reagan did not EVER want a summit for the sake of a summit even though he impulsively (I mean this as a compliment) wanted to use his political skills to convince Russia that he meant no harm. He rejected summits for their own sake and insisted on deliverables.

NATO unity was no sure thing, even in 1983, but Reagan knew how important it was to project a unified posture, to involve allies and court them, and to understand the threat of war from their perspective.

For a good sense of the stakes, read @steven_pifer, especially on the INF treaty's current fragility and desperate need to think about how to renew START (which expires in less than 3 years). brookings.edu/blog/order-fro…