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Axel Antoni @antoni_UK
, 12 tweets, 6 min read Read on Twitter
1/ Why is @UKLabour not opposing #Brexit when Tory Brexit is in tatters & 72% of the Labour supporters do oppose Brexit ? This is a very intriguing question & it feels counterintuitive, especially since most Labour MPs oppose Brexit too. But is it?
2/ Despite Labour party & and supporters opposing #Brexit, supporting it is the surest way to to winning the next general election. And this has nothing to do with wanting to attract Leave voters at all - nothing at all.
3/ There is only one Brexit scenario that will keep the @Conservatives in power: A hard #Brexit that at the same time is a success. And we know how likely that is. All other scenarios will almost automatically lead to a @UKLabour Govt.
4/ Supporting Brexit has done little damage to Labour. Voters dislike the Tories more than Brexit as seen at both the last local & general election. Labour has built support enough to chase the Tories but not enough to inherit the poison chalice of having to deliver #Brexit
5/ So what is Labour’s plan/strategy? It all hinges around the ludicrous 6 Brexit tests @Keir_Starmer put forward. Tests that no Brexit, however well negotiated, will deliver. Everyone knows that. These tests will play a crucial part in Oct when the deal goes back to parliament.
6/ So far the mood of the electorate in regards to #Brexit has not shifted majorly since the referendum. The Conservatives around Theresa May have kept Leave voters happy with slogans and promises. The economic impact has not been felt yet either.
7/ Time is running out though to deliver Brexit and the realities of what Brexit means and what kind of Brexit we are going to get are going to become clearer. So what will be Labour’s options.
8/ Scenario 1: Mood of electorate swings noticeably against Brexit.
Labour will say that Tory Brexit does not deliver on Keir Starmer’s 6 ludicrous tests & will advocate #PeoplesVote. First signs already emerging for this from the party = champions of successful 2nd referendum.
9/ Scenario 2: Soft Brexit
Tories will lose voters who wanted hard Brexit (no ECJ, stopping of Freedom Of Movement) to re-emerging UKIP or similar party while Labour can claim to have softened Tory #Brexit = Labour gaining majority
10/ Scenario 3: Hard Brexit, damaging jobs & economy
Labour would vote against this in parliament (6 tests) but might not be successful in stopping it. Labour will be seen as the ones who warned & would have delivered the better Brexit = Labour gaining majority.
11/ Scenario 4: Article 50 extended
As per scenario 2 (Soft Brexit) voters desperate for hard Brexit will seek alternative party to the Conservatives - Tories will lose majority even with DUP. Labour gaining majority.
12/ So whatever outcome, Labour’s best strategy to win the next general election is continuing to pretend to support Brexit. In all this @jeremycorbyn is the useful idiot - the one keeping up the Brexit front - will he still stand at the next election when he is way over 70? /end
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