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The Leave Alliance @LeaveHQ
, 20 tweets, 5 min read Read on Twitter
1. Our current thinking is that the Chequers plan is totally unworkable. It is impractical and incompatible with EU and international law. The EU will reject it - but not immediately. It will use the time to plan for a no deal #Brexit
2. The general feeling, thanks to the propaganda of the Tory right is that the proposal is about as far as the UK can bend. This is odd because the proposal is not entirely dismiliar to some of the nonsense cooked up by pro-Brexit think tanks. Mrs May cannot win.
3. Mrs May could even adopt their alternative plans with some adjustments and the ultras would shift the goalposts again. They would cry betrayal at any concession. They are unappeasable. There is no deal they will support because they do not want a deal.
4. That leaves us in a bit of a pickle because there is no way to secure frictionless trade without regulatory harmonisaton and even the EEA is only a starter for ten. There is no workable alternate model and certainly not one that allows us to unilaterally diverge.
5. Moreover, Mrs May has pulled a fast one by ruling out the proposed NI backstop, attempting to effectively leverage the backstop as a whole UK solution which the EU has already ruled out - especially if the UK is intent on divergence.
6. The EU, therefore, has probably quietly concluded that there is no possibility of a viable proposal from London and will let the situation drift, not officially ruling it out so as to avoid a political row. For now at least.
7. Sooner or later this will come to a head and Mrs May will either have to cave in on the backstop or float an EEA based proposal. It is unlikely she will do this because of the betrayal narrative and politically the backstop is suicidal. Failure seems inevitable.
8. If that happens it is a serious problem not only for the UK but also the EU. There will be political fallout. Aside from the trade problems no deal brings, the UK will likely refuse to install NI border controls and the RoI will likely do the same, pending a formal solution.
9. This will be in defiance of the EU legal system so we will have to go back to the able even after crashing out. There must be a formal agreement, especially given the sensitivity. That is when we will probably end up signing up something similar to the backstop.
10. It should be noted that no deal is not an end point. We cannot settle on a situation where we have no formal trade relations with the EU so we will send not an inconsiderable amount of time rebuilding a trade relationship - which will in the long term result in an FTA.
11. Should this happen the deal will be tilted in EU's favour in that our need is greater than theirs and if we do make concessions on regulation the EU will insist on a central role for the ECJ. Without being in Efta, that much is a certainty be it now or later.
12. We would therefore end up right back where we are now, but having suffered the economic hit of severance for no gain whatsoever. Put simply, it is not in our interests for talks to fail and leaving without a deal only really postpones the inevitable concessions we will make.
13. The intelligent thing to do would be to join Efta and retain the EEA but increasingly that looks politically unlikely even though it is the obvious and most sensible solution. Both remain and leave extremists have poisoned the chalice.
14. That said we will continue to bang the drum for Efta, as indeed will @EFTA4UK, because even after we crash out it will remain the most coherent next step with preferable terms to an FTA. By then the situation will be so acute than many will drop their objections.
15. It would appear that hard Brexit fever is something that just has to burn itself our where the ultras will have to learn first hand that there is more to trade than tariffs. Moderate voices are lost in the noise and fury and the media is only interested in the extremes.
16. The failure of Brexit talks will be a body blow for the UK economy but the EU is complacent if it believes it won't have serious political ramifications for them. Pro-EU sentiment is very often fickle and can turn sour very rapidly.
17. We will see in the fallout that member states are keen to take corrective action but will be hamstrung by the EU system where they will learn the limitations of their own sovereignty. Ireland especially. The EU calls the shots when it comes to the border.
18. Ultimately it is in the interests of nobody for talks to fail. We would hope that @StefaanDeRynck and @MichelBarnier are aware of this. The EU should narrow the options and put an end to this dithering. The EEA is the best for us and the best for them.
19. If we leave without a deal then the EU will be pressured into fudging solutions putting single market integrity at risk and opening itself up to WTO challenges. If that happens there is a risk of a domino effect, threatening the very foundations of the single market.
20. If the Tories drive us over the cliff due to their obstinacy they will do enormous harm to the country and in the end we will end up with a deal worse than we could have by compromising now. Since the Tories are done for in any case, they should act in the national interest.
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