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Pete North @PeteNorth303
, 12 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
1. Mrs May has gone as far as she can go, politically, with the White Paper. Yet this cannot be accepted by the EU. Thus, when the EU rejects it - which they must do - this opens the way for a "no deal" walk-out #Brexit.
2. The only thing is that Brussels must be aware of this. They will be calculating the odds and working out their own game plan. They'll say "we're nearly there", right up to the time the shutters come down, calling right up to the very last minute for more UK proposals.
3. Thus, we will get a time expiry without any dramatic rejection and UK walk-out. The EU then unilaterally implements time-limited mitigating measures which keep the show on the road more or less. These will be hailed as "concessions" by the UK and treated as a victory.
4. But they will be a trap. Unilaterally given, they can be unilaterally withdrawn - with staged removal as the EU/MS get their systems in place. Progressively, we find the walls closing in, a slow-motion train wreck rather than a big-bang.
5. The UK will then have to come, cap in hand, to Brussels, asking for a deal, which will be set entirely on the EU's terms. We will be royally shafted. That's when the screaming will start and politics starts to fall apart.
6. Meanwhile, the Ultras have over-reached themselves. They have set themselves up for a fall, claiming that "no deal" is benign. When the shit hits the fan, they will need to go into hiding. Even their local associations will want blood.
7. They'll try the meme that its "punishment" from the EU, but the EU is already onto that one. It won;t stick. The key will be when the media turns against them and the politicians start panicking. At that point the Tory right is finished.
8. They are already on thin ice, with their support waning and in so doing they are eroding support for Brexit. There is still a way to go before the final whistle and plenty time yet to expose their game and shout it from the rooftops.
9. We may not be able to stop them and they will hold Mrs May hostage right to the end, if indeed they do not remove her. But that will be their final miscalculation. After that they are done.
10. So as much as we need to prepare for no deal - which is inevitable, we must mount up the pressure to join Efta as soon as the shit hits the fan - by which time many will have dropped their objection to it out of necessity and there'll be nothing to stop the next government.
11. This is why you, dear reader must be primed and get to grips with the EEA Efta arguments. Brexit can still be salvaged after the fact. A "no deal" will destroy the "ultras" and in a crisis scenario that follows, people will be disposed to listen to a reasoned solution.
12. I do not see that there is any way to stop them for the moment, so we are all passengers of events for the time being, but we can ensure that they are punished for what they are about to do to us and that they do not get away with it.
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