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Pete North @PeteNorth303
, 8 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
1. The main reason there will be #Brexit food shortages if we crash out of the EU is because people believe there will be. Panic buying very rapidly depletes stocks. This will happen even if there isn't a disruption to supply chains. Which, categorically, there will be.
2. People who don't believe it are complacent. They've had it so good for so long and pay no attention to how things actually work and assume it all just happens by magic or "market forces". They fail to understand that the single market is a system.
3. How they can assume everything will be fine escapes me in that we've had enough evidence in recent times that things very rapidly fall apart with even minor perturbations. Even minor baggage carousel malfunctions can set off a chain of delays in EU airspace.
4. Mostly this is profound ignorance. Many believe most Brexit issues is something that could be resolved in a day with a bottle of tippex, a biro and a photocopier. If only. It's very easy to drop out of a treaty organisation. Much harder to put things back together,
5. Just restoring some level of normality to aviation will require a re-write of the rulebook, new agreements and changes to airport infrastructure. We will need a new bilateral agreement with the EU and we'll only get what is available to third countries.
6. Similarly with customs at Calais. We can have some time limited sticking plasters in place and instructions to freight companies to keep their lorries off the roads, but we are still going to need longer term fixes.
7. Then, as we know, the software for declarations is nowhere close to coping with the increased volumes and isn't even designed to cope with the UK being a third country. We are looking at multiple systems failures.
8. Dismiss it as "project fear" if you will but please do explain which bit the Commission has got wrong in its Notices to Stakeholders. It rather looks to me like third country *means* third country.

ec.europa.eu/info/brexit/br…
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