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Larry Vaughn @honlarryvaughn
, 12 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
1/Inside the numbers for Brian Kemp's almost unbelievable 40 point win in GA governor's runoff that was tied going into election. In primary Cagle drew 236,987 votes, Kemp drew 155,189, three remaining candidates drew 215,265. There was a 4% drop in votes cast.
2/In runoff Cagle drew 178,911 votes, losing to Kemp's 406,736. So ALL of the votes cast for the three losing primary candidates went to Kemp in the runoff, and ALL of the 4% drop in turnout came from Cagle's voters. Plus, new voters for Kemp would be required. How possible?
3/Cagle "collapse" is attributed to (a) a series of embarrassing taped conversations that painted him in unfavorable light, (b) a last minute endorsement by Donald Trump. They are both lockstep conservatives with otherwise indistinguishable policy positions. Both support Trump.
4/The Cagle tapes were known before the primary, and there were no real revelations between the primary and runoff that should have influenced the race. Likewise, Kemp's controversial TV ads were baked into the primary election and there were no such new ads to influence runoff.
5/ 25.4% of R voters said "Share my values" was the primary reason for their vote. Only 17.6% said that being a "Stronger supporter of Trump" was the primary reason for their vote. Trump's endorsement doesn't show up in crosstabs bc it came so late.
6/On the other hand, only 10.2% said "More trustworthy" was their primary concern, the single factor that analysts say worked against Cagle.
7/We are left to conclude that for no apparent reason & against stated priorities 96% of the primary voters showed up last Tuesday and every single one of them who voted for other primary candidates decided to vote for Kemp AND some of the Cagle voters decided to switch votes.
8/Is the GA electorate really that fickle? No, this is an historically unprecedented event. Plus, every single pre election poll would have been at least two standard deviations outside its 95% confidence interval.
9/There have been anecdotal reports of voting and registration irregularities in some precincts. In light of these reports has a post-election audit been conducted to try to explain or double check the election results? No, there are no paper records to use in an audit.
10/One of the candidates (Kemp) is current Sec. of State and operates a famously insecure election system that's suffered repeated breaches and malfunctions & as we now know was targeted by Russian hackers.
11/Corrections: (1)Cagle's tapes were not baked into primary. They were released a couple days later. Nevertheless they did not move the polls appreciably and as stated only 10% of voters said trustworthiness mattered.
12/Corrections: (2) Charactering polls as "tied" overstates. That was a press characterization. They were trending to Kemp but supposed motion occurred late in early voting so effects were muted, (3) Trump endorsement occurred at end of early thus muting effects.
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