GOP turnout looks... exactly like 2014 (when they won).
The dropoff with #1 favored the GOP. The dropoff with #2 didn’t matter, until 2016, and now it could hurt the GOP.
The Obama-Trump voter still exists but may not show up.
Education dropoff will matter a lot this year, and age dropoff may not matter as much given higher Dem-specific turnout.
Obama-Trump voters more likely to show up. The college educated minority can’t throw its weight around as much.