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Patrick Ruffini @PatrickRuffini
, 11 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
My attempt to describe in plain English what 2018 turnout models and special election turnout are telling us.
Turnout among Dems is up. It’s way up amongst whites with a college degree, and up still higher amongst women in that group. With the most energized voters it looks like the midpoint between a midterm and a presidential.

GOP turnout looks... exactly like 2014 (when they won).
GOP turnout isn’t low. It’s Dem turnout that’s high. And that’s what makes the difference.
Usually in midterms there is a turnout drop off with 1) younger voters and 2) non-college educated voters.

The dropoff with #1 favored the GOP. The dropoff with #2 didn’t matter, until 2016, and now it could hurt the GOP.

The Obama-Trump voter still exists but may not show up.
Because of partisan shifts within the electorate, a wider electorate may actually help Republicans and turnout dropoffs hurt them given a super-energized college grad vote.
The underlying shift due to persuasion need not be that great for the GOP to get walloped on turnout only.

Education dropoff will matter a lot this year, and age dropoff may not matter as much given higher Dem-specific turnout.
Moving from a 2018 electorate to a 2020 electorate may help Trump on balance, even with higher younger turnout.

Obama-Trump voters more likely to show up. The college educated minority can’t throw its weight around as much.
On younger voters: Turnout increases are always disproportionately concentrated among the young because seniors are pretty much perfect midterm & presidential voters. Their scores go way up.
Hence the idea that the turnout gap to watch is on college education, not age
If there’s any state you’d expect to be more immune from a Dem surge it’d be Florida: Seniors, heavily minority, and no significant college white dominated population centers.
In past cycles, California was immune to the wave. Could it be Florida this year?
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