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Lucid TA @Lucid_TA
, 10 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
Despite the rallying cries of bottom callers, I remain unconvinced by this pump. Though I'll gladly flip my perspective if strong enough evidence arises.

As of right now, I still think the highest probability scenario is a short squeeze before further lows. $BTC $ETH
Though imperfect, BTC is exhibiting rising wedge structure; with a significant resistance cluster just above (prior consolidation zone, resistance level, price target, 128 Day MA, maybe daily TD9). Ideally we see a pop through the top of RW into this cluster before spilling.
Shorts are now closing at a rapid rate, both during upswings and pullbacks. If current trajectory sustains, shorts will be down at approximately 25000 units by tomorrow. Ideally we see a squeeze higher with a climax in short closures that sets us up for downside.
Despite the many calls of "alt season", $ETH has yet to make higher highs and is still on track for downside continuation structure formation. Though the arrows I drew were a little off, the kind of structure pictured is still a strong possibility.
If you look at each successive swing in this current period of consolidation, each has exhibited lower volatility than the last. This is exactly what I'm looking for in a tradable downside continuation setup. Potential for *very* high RR trade here.
The doomsday scenario I outlined earlier (linked) is still on the cards. If structure breaks down, the first target would be at $200, with potential for over-performance into the low $100's. I'll update with proper reasoning if hypothetical setup confirms.
Another thing I'll mention is long/short differentials on alts. Though BTC L/S differentials are of primary importance (since the market relies heavily on BTC strength), it's worth noting that longs outnumber shorts on alts by multiples of between 2 - 5 (for the most part).
On the contrary, there are a number of coin-specific swing signals I'm watching that may or may not signal for sustained upside. In addition to that, if we see strong upside continuation setups forming, I would undoubtedly trade long.
For the bear case to remain my primary consideration, BTC needs to top out soon and ETH needs to continue consolidation. If BTC sets up for further upside, or if ETH makes significant higher highs; I'll flip my bias and begin accumulating long positions.
In any case, I'll update promptly if the various factors that have the potential to flip my bias manifest. Still holding my near term BTC long position for potential target run. Stop loss is now at break even, RR on trade was 5.
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