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Pete North @PeteNorth303
, 16 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
1. There's a subtle shift in tone from the ultras this morning who are now pushing for a Canada+ agreement. That + is going to have to do a lot of work because we'd still be subject to third country controls thus having a similarly damaging effect to no deal #Brexit.
2. Again the Brexiters are ducking the issue that to have frictionless trade you need full regulatory harmonisation. If we don't have that then Mrs May will have to sign the NI backstop. Chequers is an attempt to fudge this question but it is at least a nod to reality.
3. Mrs May has attempted to bridge the unbridgeable divide. Chequers is an attempt at regulatory alignment while maintaining a level of regulatory sovereignty - which is tolerable but not to the EU. They won't go for it.
4. Allowing the UK to unilaterally diverge means the UK gets to set the lowest bar of market entry for goods, which Brussels can never agree to. Even member states cannot do that. So we are back to square one. Norway or nothing.
5. Being that the ultras and remainers have lied through their teeth and misrepresented the option, it's dead in the water even though it is the one path available to us that can actually work. So now we are going to waste time pretending Canada is an answer when it isn't.
6. Whenever they say Canada Plus or WTO Plus or anything plus, the plus is an admission that the proposal of itself will not work. Even a Norway EEA plus is insufficient. This is the fact they don't want to face up to.
7. The Ultras, though, are investing all their energies into dislodging Chequers calling it remain in all but name, which it absolutely isn't and they do Mrs May a disservice. She has at least attempted to reconcile the issues which is more than they have.
8. Why May is sticking to her guns when she has been told by Brussels it will not fly is the greater mystery here but this is no longer about Brexit. This is a power struggle between Tory factions and the specifics of the issue no longer feature in the debate.
9. In effect there can be no progress until one faction wins out. Since neither side is going to back down and there will be no agreement on how to proceed, we will simply run out of time and there will not be a deal. Which is actually what the Ultras want.
10. That tells us that Canada Plus is just a decoy to weaken May. This is pure politics where Brexit is the proxy issue. Meanwhile the opposition has retreated into its own navel gazing bubble. Nobody is steering the ship...…
11. The Ultra faction could succeed in dislodging May but there's a hypocrisy here in that if they were in control they would still face the exact same intractable dilemmas for which they have no answers either. They know that, but this is a power game and its not about Brexit
12. I now think that Brexit will happen of its own accord while the parties are absorbed with tribal bickering - and this current battle is a battle to decide who will be left to pick up the pieces. Whoever wins will not last very long because a crash out Brexit is a disaster.
13. All the while, Brussels will tread water just to buy time to prepare. They have given up on the UK proposing anything workable or sensible and they are not expecting a request to extend so they need all their ducks inn a row for when the excrement hits the fan.
14. In between now and then we will have all the usual self-declared experts floating their own stupid solutions that we will be expected to churn over even though there is zero chance of these ideas being adopted.
15. The media, true to form, will obsess about a potential leadership contest while trivialising the issues, taking their eye off the ball completely so when Brexit does happen they will have no idea what hit them or why. And then the Tories will blame Brussels.
16. Unless there is a miracle and the government asks to extend Article 50 we are crashing out of the EU. Even if it did extend there is still no real chance of agreement since the Ultras are unappeasable and will sabotage any attempt at a workable solution.
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