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Eric Holthaus @EricHolthaus
, 6 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
Hurricane #Florence Update, 4pm:

Mid-day models continue to be unanimous: Florence is on track to landfall in the Carolinas on Thursday, likely as a Cat 4.

Longer-range models are still hinting at Florence stalling for 3+ days—creating a potentially catastrophic flood in NC/VA.
Where exactly #Florence makes landfall (and how far inland it goes after landfall) will determine the area most at risk of heavy rain and extreme inland flooding.

We're talking a multi-state region—potentially as far north as West Virginia, DC, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania.
Hurricanes rotate counter-clockwise, so the northern edge of the storm is always rainier -- with air supplied straight from the ocean.

That's why Virginia is at a much greater risk of flooding right now than South Carolina.

Keep watch this storm—even if you're not in the cone.
Here's the latest @NWSWPC rainfall forecast for the next 7 days. HOWEVER, this graphic only goes out to next Sunday -- chances are very good that #Florence will stick around past that.

Expect these totals to go up -- maybe by a lot.

24-36 inches is possible, maybe even likely.
For context, the rainiest East Coast hurricane in recorded history is the remnants of Camille (1969) which produced 27" in Virginia.

#Florence could match -- or exceed -- that mark.
wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/…
The latest ECMWF model for #Florence is showing a max rainfall of 32"+

Catastrophic.
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