Some think he’ll sit-tight, others think he’ll go away meekly - one is manufactured, the other is closer to reality.
Truth is: Buhari is tired of Govt, his family is tired of abuse and he is a reluctant aspirant being egged on by some, especially Amaechi.
The threat is understood but it is really minimal.
Buhari called a meeting of his top aides and told them he didn’t feel able to run on anti-corruption again and would rather promise Nigerians something new.
Amaechi and co disagreed and insisted on doubling-down.
Buhari in his heart knows that he has failed Nigerians - it’s those whose political future are inextricably tied to his re-election that are desperate to impose him again.
The most desperate being Amaechi, there is currently a lot of pushback from the core Fulanis who surround Buhari to limit Amaechi’s influence on the President’s re-election effort.
For these ones, it’s not about Buhari per se but about ethnicity.
And many leaks are coming from such people around him and from the hierarchy of those in the electoral body and in the security arms of Govt which may be used to rig the elections.
Elections are won step by step - about a year ago, people were worried whether PDP would even exist, a while ago it was “who will replace him?”
But through it all, some of us have accurately predicted what phase we are in and right now, our focus should be on insisting that Buhari is simply not an option.
Buhari will face the mother of all pressures and resistance from January into the elections and from everywhere including and especially international bodies and Govts.
Most of them are waiting to see if the alternative is better than the incumbent before they start but for us as Nigerians whose fates are directly affected, we can’t wait for anyone but must continue to reject Buhari.
Some of his supporters in a few Northern states will unleash violence but it’ll be part of what will force Buhari to come out, accept the election results and call on his supporters to shun violence.
Almost like a script.
Buhari isn’t GEJ but even those around GEJ didn’t want GEJ to concede - he was teleguided.
Buhari is a weaker and older man who isn’t as brave or decisive as some assume.
He will lose next year and he will go back to Daura meekly.
Quite a number of the latter are unhappy with the national perception that all Fulanis are like Buhari or herdsmen.
Anyone who wants to dig further should take the hints but don’t buy the BNMC narrative or even promote it on their behalf.
The only missing part of this script now is who will replace Buhari.
The closest anyone can say for now is which zone the person will come from and even that isn’t set in stone.
The idea of VP going to the SW again is being considered but it will upset the permutations more terribly than anyone can predict.
Keyamo and other campaign operatives will do what they’re paid to do - shout loud that heaven will fall if Buhari loses - Orubebe did worse.
Heaven will not fall and Buhari will go meekly.