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Demola Olarewaju @DemolaRewaju
, 22 tweets, 5 min read Read on Twitter
There are two contradictory public opinions on the chances that Buhari/APC won’t rig elections shamelessly next year or simply refuse to concede even if he loses:

Some think he’ll sit-tight, others think he’ll go away meekly - one is manufactured, the other is closer to reality.
The idea that Buhari will not step down even if defeated or handover is a BNMC manufactured propaganda which is quite far from the reality.

Truth is: Buhari is tired of Govt, his family is tired of abuse and he is a reluctant aspirant being egged on by some, especially Amaechi.
One thing we often see during political season is the high influx of opinions expressed by people who haven’t followed the polity closely enough - and this is fertile ground for a lot of propaganda to be spread and believed.

The threat is understood but it is really minimal.
As far back as April, this happened -

Buhari called a meeting of his top aides and told them he didn’t feel able to run on anti-corruption again and would rather promise Nigerians something new.

Amaechi and co disagreed and insisted on doubling-down.

premiumtimesng.com/investigations…
They insisted that the only thing Buhari could run on was the anti-corruption agenda - and all they needed were a few convictions (to answer those of us who ask them how many people they’ve convicted) - and to bring in Festus Keyamo who understands the legal side of the subject.
That is what was publicly reported but some of us also know more that we can’t come out and say categorically - for instance, that his closest family members led by the lady of the other room confronted two top aides in his presence and queried the insistence on a second term.
It was shortly after this that he told his aides to halt campaigns and took a medical vacation abroad.

Buhari in his heart knows that he has failed Nigerians - it’s those whose political future are inextricably tied to his re-election that are desperate to impose him again.
And here it gets interesting:

The most desperate being Amaechi, there is currently a lot of pushback from the core Fulanis who surround Buhari to limit Amaechi’s influence on the President’s re-election effort.

For these ones, it’s not about Buhari per se but about ethnicity.
If Buhari goes and another Fulani replaces him, they’re not terribly bothered.

And many leaks are coming from such people around him and from the hierarchy of those in the electoral body and in the security arms of Govt which may be used to rig the elections.
I’m trying not to say too much but those who have some political depth can definitely understand where the game is currently.

Elections are won step by step - about a year ago, people were worried whether PDP would even exist, a while ago it was “who will replace him?”
At this point, people are now saying there are too many aspirants and they actually want to reduce the numbers.

But through it all, some of us have accurately predicted what phase we are in and right now, our focus should be on insisting that Buhari is simply not an option.
Projecting into what Buhari will do or not do, five months from now, should not be the general preoccupation.

Buhari will face the mother of all pressures and resistance from January into the elections and from everywhere including and especially international bodies and Govts.
It won’t be as overt and done with GEJ but it will be there.

Most of them are waiting to see if the alternative is better than the incumbent before they start but for us as Nigerians whose fates are directly affected, we can’t wait for anyone but must continue to reject Buhari.
Buhari will concede elections meekly: write it down.

Some of his supporters in a few Northern states will unleash violence but it’ll be part of what will force Buhari to come out, accept the election results and call on his supporters to shun violence.

Almost like a script.
It will play out in such a way that every other option will look terrible to him (including criminal charges at the ICC which he has been made to publicly endorse by physical visit).

Buhari isn’t GEJ but even those around GEJ didn’t want GEJ to concede - he was teleguided.
Everything was played out on him like a script with a stick being wielded on one side and carrots being dangled on the other side.

Buhari is a weaker and older man who isn’t as brave or decisive as some assume.

He will lose next year and he will go back to Daura meekly.
There are also two more aspects I don’t want to delve into but I can hint at - First is the internal rumble between pastoralist Fulanis and elite Fulanis.

Quite a number of the latter are unhappy with the national perception that all Fulanis are like Buhari or herdsmen.
The other angle is related to the key subject of this piece and the actual reasons why the programme was cancelled/postponed.

Anyone who wants to dig further should take the hints but don’t buy the BNMC narrative or even promote it on their behalf.

premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines…
I understand that people are legitimately concerned as citizens but if those concerns eventually prevent people from going out to play their part by actually voting, them we’ve only shot ourselves in the foot.

The only missing part of this script now is who will replace Buhari.
All or many of us know those who will not replace him but I don’t think there is anybody who can definitely say who will replace him exactly.

The closest anyone can say for now is which zone the person will come from and even that isn’t set in stone.
As the election draws closer though, we should be wary of upsetting the arrangement out of selfishness or self-centred aspirations.

The idea of VP going to the SW again is being considered but it will upset the permutations more terribly than anyone can predict.
That aspect is my only fear at this point - every other thing will play out as expected.

Keyamo and other campaign operatives will do what they’re paid to do - shout loud that heaven will fall if Buhari loses - Orubebe did worse.

Heaven will not fall and Buhari will go meekly.
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