My paper (bit.ly/2NJmxSB) with @kunalsen5 and Rajesh Raj (EPW, forthcoming) shows that business climate and productivity cannot be improved this way.
2/6 India's business climate has always been poor. Our ranking in the World Bank’s Doing Business Indicators have forever been low.
The current government has attempted to reverse this situation by improving the #rules related to the World Bank's Doing Business indicators.
3/6 Can their attempt really improve the business environment and increase productivity to ensure #MakeinIndia?
We answer this question by using firm level data, looking at business environment in terms of number of days it takes to get operating license or construction permit.
4/6 We find that states with weaker quality of governance provide better 'business environment' in terms of the speed of obtaining licenses and permits.
This suggests that firms ensure greater ease of doing business through 'regulatory capture' of weakly governed states.
5/6 We also find that for most states, licenses and permits are obtained more quickly by less productive firms.
This shows that easing the norms of business regulations need not necessarily lead to higher firm productivity.
If this is the reality of India's business environment, then the government's attempt to achieve #MakeinIndia by reforming the 'de jure' rules related to #easeofdoingbusiness in India seems unlikely to succeed in its objective.
The disruptions caused by Covid-19 and the lockdowns may make the work of macro policy more complicated than usual, simply by worsening the short-run tradeoff between growth and inflation.
Let me explain.
1/6
A major factor behind the growth-inflation tradeoff is that in any economy close to full capacity, there is excess capacity in some sectors, while others face capacity constraints.
2/6
Increasing aggregate demand in such a situation lead to more growth in the excess-capacity sectors but also more inflation in the sectors facing constraints.