Profile picture
Sophia @les_politiques
, 216 tweets, 143 min read Read on Twitter
1/ The #Saudi kidnapping of #Khashoggi reminds me of the kidnapping of #Hariri. It is meant to embarrass the other party, this time the gov of #Turkey, and provoke a diplomatic crisis. This is drug Cartel methods. It has no other goal than to assert power over the other.
2/ However, resorting to these methods to assert power in the political and international affairs sphere is always a sign of weakness and a sign of a power in crisis. #SaudiArabia
The #Saudi have effectively make #Khashoggi disappear. Even though his fiancee was waiting for him the whole time outisde the consulate, they still maintain he is not in. Let's be clear with whom the West is dealing here, with wanton criminals.…
This should be a warning to the West: are you ready to wage a foolish war on #Iran and its people so this kind of regime can persist and flourish?
Anonymous Turkish official: #Khashokggi disappearance at the #Saudi consulate 'a preplanned murder'…
Is @Twitter suppressing the hashtag #Khashoggi? When I first started tweeting about this, Twitter would complete the hashtag for me. Not now. try and see for yourself.
If you want to read the full spin #Saudi are putting on #Khashoggi disappearance and the uncomfirmed news of his murder, read the twitter TL of Zaid Benjamin (mostly Arabic), I can't get myself to translate these lies.
.@AlakhbarNews claims #Khashoggi met #MohammadBinSalman's brother, #Saudi amb to #US, four times lately to transfer money from Saudi to Turkey to buy an appart, that his cell phone was under surveillance, and that he underestimated the situation he was in.…
@AlakhbarNews The same article also claims that #Saudi warned #Turkey testerday that #Khashoggi is in #Riyadh. But this, I Doubt.
@AlakhbarNews #Saudi prob did 911 with no consequences whatsoever from the US and the international community. No wonder They feel immune to any kind of accountability.
Will the #UN ask for an internatiinal tribunal for #Saudi crimes, as it did after the assassination of #Hariri? Or will international justice bow again and prosecute only those who oppose the West? #ICC
Given the frequency of contacts btwn #Khashoggi & #Saudi officials before his disappearance, any animosity they must have had for him was prob concealed to made him feel secure before trapping him. And the man was an insider, he could not have imagined what awaited him in the end
Why is not #Khashoggi trending, @Twitter?
#Khashoggi killed and dismembered inside the consulate, body prob taken back to #SaudiArabia with the agents who flew to kill him.…
#MohammadBinSalman is a real reformer because he changed forever the meaning of the diplomatic courrier. #Khashoggi #SaudArabia #Turkey
Hey, @Twitter, where is the #Khashoggi hashtag?
#Khashoggi was an insider. #MohammadBinSalman will not be forgiven. But as long as #Trump and Kushner are around, he believes he is protected.
Yes, #Khashoggi was an insider, and as vile as those who killed him. The regime is eating itself.
1/ Honest question: why aren't journalists mentioning ( and investigating) that #Khashoggi met #Saudi amb to the #US, who is #MohammadBinSalman's brother, at least four times during the last six monts, as per @AlakhbarNews' source? What were these meetings for?
2/ Why #Khashoggi's abduction (and killing) didn't happen inside the #US where #MohammadBinSalman has strong protection from high above?
3/ My conclusion is that #Khashoggi's disappearance (and killing) happened in #Turkey for a reason that has probably to do with US-Turkish relations.
4/ Put yourself in #Turkey authorities' shoes, what can Turkey do without 'body' evidence of #Khashoggi's killing? An accusation will only serve to highten tensions between Turkey and #Saudi and Turkey and the #US. At the same time, Turkey can't just sit and do nothing.
In his last tweets, #Khashoggi battled one of #MohammadBinSalman's bots who belittled the #Yemen famine & war, retweeted a supporter about how Yemen war and dispute with #Qatar are diverting from the famine that threatens inside #Saudi, and a criticism of #Trump.
1/ #Khashoggi went inside the #Saudi consulate in #Istanbul, with fiancée waiting, was never seen out again.
Saudi deny he's still inside.
Either way, Saudi cannot provide proof of life, if they do, they are liars, if they don't, they are liars too.
Conclusion: Khashoggi is dead.
2/ Read a tweet from a journo close to the kingdom that #Turkey might have participated in #Khashoggi's murder. This is irrational and ridiculous, Turkey didn't have motive, and if it did, it wouln't have done so inside the consulate, therefore exposing itself to #Saudi blackmail
No reaction from the White House on #Khashoggi yet.… #Trump #Saudi
1/ #Erdogan said he is personally following the investigation into the disappearance of #Khashoggi. You bet. This is a golden opportunity for Erdogan to affirm his leadership among Sunnis in the Arab world and worldwide.
2/ We have to face a reality: the #Saudi leadership of #Sunnis has been corrupted by terrorism, criminal complicity with the West, abandonment of #Palestine, and now an authoritarian crown prince acting as de facto ruler of #Saudi, waging wars on Muslims and killing his own.
3/ There is a long running rivalry between #Saudi and #Turkey to assume the leadership of #Sunnis that was revived by Erdogan. Turkey for example refused to return to Saudi some items belonging to the Prophet. You can still see the Prophet's hair displayed in the Topkapi palace.
4/ The #Saudi leadership is now a drifting boat. Other Sunni Gulf countries are too small and too insignificant, despite their wealth, to assume the leadership of their sect. This is now #Erdogan's moment, thanks to #MohammadBinSalman.
And at no time #Khashoggi was allowed to trend, let alone be visible, on @Twitter, except for the spin that #MohammadBinSalman's bots put out which was 'Khashoggi the theatrical' in Arabic.
Tom Friedman has just pronounced #Khashoggi's death sentence, in case he wasn't already dead, what a moron: "I don’t think that Saudi journalist, who was also a friend, would mind if I now identified him. His name was Jamal Khashoggi."…
"Ever since CP #MohammedbinSalman returned from a month-long trip abroad in March & April ... a succession of developments have cast serious doubt on the credibility of the reform narrative the crown prince & his entourage were so energetically pushing..."…
"it may also be no coincidence that the pushback against MbS on virtually every front has dated from last spring, after he spent more than a month outside #SaudiArabia, when he no longer could regulate the flow of information to the Royal Court through proximity alone."
"And yet, even if #Saudi policymaking somehow reverted to a sort of status quo ante, it must now reckon with the ongoing fallout from a growing list of blunders that MbS authored."
All the crown prince's men: Five of the fifteen #Saudis who traveled to Istanbul on the day #Khashoggi went to the consulate ahve been identified, one of them is the head of the forensic evidence at the Saudi general security department
#Khashoggi: Not only Turkish staff of #Saudi consultate was told to go home but there is no CCTV for the period of interest. Two planes with total of 15 mbrs now identified as being mostly army & forensics, arriving & leaving on same day. Damning evidence.…
I do not think #MohammadBinSalman can be saved and I do not think #Erdogan, at this point, is willing to save him. If he were to do so, he would not authorize leaks from the investigation. Expect more leaks until the gruesome picture becomes complete. #Khashoggi
"Yasin Aktay, an adviser to the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, claimed 'the Saudi state is not blamed here'”. Yes, but #MohammadBinSalman will be blamed and #Erdogan will make the #Saudi state pay a heavy price for this.
"Sen. Bob Corker, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said Tuesday that 'everything today points to' the idea that...#Khashoggi was murdered last week inside the Saudi consulate... his view was reaffirmed after viewing classified intel"…
Turkish official on #Khashoggi killing in the #Saudi consulate: Killing made by highest order of the Saudi court, it's like 'Pulp Fiction'…
Now we learn there is a video of the killing. #Turkey won't reveal its evidence, but any evidence Turkey might have comes probably from spying devices inside the #Saudi consulate, somehting Turkey will never reveal.
Which may explain why Turkish authorities didn't rush to search the consulate. They must have known early on about the fate of #Khashoggi.
"The intelligence poses a political problem for the Trump administration because it implicates MBS, who is particularly close to Jared Kushner ...On Wednesday, #Kushner and #Bolton spoke by phone with the crown prince"…
"#Kushner’s relationship with Mohammed, known within national security agencies by the initials MBS, has long been the subject of suspicion by some American intelligence officials." #Khashoggi
"#Khashoggi last year asked to give a message to #MohammedBinSalman saying he needed someone like Khashoggi as an adviser...the crown prince said that Khashoggi was tied to the Muslim Brotherhood and to #Qatar, both Saudi adversaries, and that the arrangement would never happen."
Note here that when he started the #Yemen war in 2015, #MohammadBinSalman was not fiercely opposed to the Muslim Brotherhood and initially allied with its #Yemen branch to overthrow the Houthis.
One can only notice that #MohammadBinSalman's fixation on #Qatar and the Muslim Brotherhhood came only after striking a close relationship with Jared #Kushner.
There is a similar fixation on #Qatar and the #MuslimBrotherhood in #Trump's circles, although Trump himself doesn't give this too much thought, and this fixation comes directly from #Israel because #Hamas is allied to the Muslim Brothers. #Kushner #MohammadBinSalman #Khashoggi
The same people in #Trump's circles, advisors, national security or even supporters at large from the Christian Right, who are fixated on the Muslim brotherhood, are totally confortable with #alQaeda, #ISIS and the likes, and it all comes down to #Israel's interests. #Kushner
Jared #Kushner, 'the hidden genius', has infected the mind of #MohammadBinSalman. Few years down the road, the US will come to realize the damage Kushner has done to their interests in the Middle East. #Qatar #Khashoggi
#Kushner #Khashoggi "Donald Trump’s presidency has emboldened Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to take risks abroad and clamp down on dissent at home"…
#Trump called Mohammad Bin Salman on Wednesday, yesterday, more than a week after #Khashoggi's disappearance.
If 9/11 didn't do it, why should #Khashoggi? Disappearance 'unlikely to be a breaking point for a #Saudi-#US alliance that’s too interwoven in military, intelligence and economic networks'…
#Trump on #Khashoggi
1/ Tuesday, Octobre 9: I don't want to hear about this
2/ Wednesday, Octobre 10: #Saudi has some explaining to do
3/ Thursday, Octobre 11: Why should I care about this?
The #Trump administration's attitude in the #Khashoggi crisis reminds me of #France's attitude at the eve of the Arab Spring in #Tunisia when the French gov failed to udnerstand the situation, extending support to ben Ali until the end.
Of course there were blunders made by Mohammad Bin Salman before, but this time the situation is different, he no longer commands the loyalty of the #Saudi royals, their tribes and their intelligentsia. There will be blowback and the #US will come to lose its grip on the kingdom.
The blowback against the #US is certain in this case, only the shape of it is uncertain. #Saudi #Khashoggi #Kushner #Trump
From recent reports and opinions, I can see there is a consensus in the #US and the West in general to get rid of #MohammadBinSalman. Heavy suspicions hang over him personally, or at least this is what Turkey want us to believe, and he won't be able to stay.
1/ #Trump relies heavily on #JaredKushner & his pal #MohammadBinSalman for his #Saudi & ME policies.
#MBS has alienated the whole of #SaudiArabia
One might be tempted to view the #Khashoggi disappearance & ensuing frenzy as an attempt to both remove MBS & dispossess Trump.
2/ By going after #Khashoggi in Istanbul, #MohammadBinSalman & #Kushner offered a golden opportunity to those who want to take the reins of #Trump's #Saudi & ME policies.
3/ However, we all know that little will change in matter of #US policies toward #Saudi and #Israel, Trump or no Trump, so what is tha target of those wanting to dispossess #Trump of his #Saudi & ME policies? The answer is #Syria.
4/ And it happened in #Turkey for a reason. What will be the result of removing MBS & dispossessing #Trump of his ME policy? A Thank you to #Turkey that could take the shape of a reinvigorated #Erdogan with new allies in #Saudi & #US, as during the 1st days of the war in Syria.
5/ IMHO, the #Khashoggi affair could be summarized as follow: The precocious 'genius' (#MohammadBinSalman), and the 'hidden genius' (#Kushner), have been played.
6/ I still believe suspicions are on MBS in #Khashoggi's disappearance and apparent murder, and indirectly on Kushner. And I believe story will be milked by Turkey. However, I do not believe Turkey is in for the money, it's for a far bigger price.
7/ So far, little has been said by #Russia officials on #Khashoggi.
9/ The price #Saudi will have to pay for the #Khashoggi murder is a realignment with #Qatar, #Turkey and the #US on #Syria, which Khashoggi would have approved anyway. This reminds me of #RafikHariri’s murder. It will work, but only for a short time. A plan from neocon hell.
10/ Beside realigning Saudi-US-Qatari policy in Syria under his leadership, there will be side benefits to #Erdogan in this service rendered to the neocons: expect a jugment in Brunson's case for jail time equal to time already served, a carrot for Trump, and Gulen out #Khashoggi
11/ Confirmation that Brunson was released by #Turkey, thanks to a link sent by a friend just now! Wow!
12/ Erdogan never liked the cage #Russia put him in. The neocons, despite the fact that they hate him deeply, sensed an opportunity. But all this will be short lived. #Khashoggi
13/ The neocons are disruptors, this is their basic approach, shock & awe, assassinations, etc...They try to benefit from the disruption. It is in essence a neoliberal approach. But this is tactic, not strategy, and, as in other cases, the benefits will be short-lived.
14/ This is why the neocons go from one war to another, because the benefits from each disruption are short-lived, so they need to disrupt more to be able to prolong the time frame in which they can brutally profit from disruptions to advance their cause (Israel).
15/ One could imagine that there could be a war fatigue effect from this approach, but this is without factoring in the media who blindly follow the neocon exploits, advocating for wars, spreading neocon talking points and disinformation.
"In spite of the cessation of hostilities regime, violations are ongoing by illegal armed groups operating in the #Idlib de-escalation zone" #Syria #Turkey #Russia
The #Khashoggi disappearance came at the heel of #Russia's announced deliveries of #S300 to the gov of #Syria, potentially limiting #Israel's air force operations over Syria.
One thing keeps bugging me about #Khashoggi, he was wary of going inside the consulate and he leaves his cellphone outside with his fiancée?
Lindsay Graham cares only about #Khashoggi. "#Graham and #McCain, who passed away in August due to brain cancer, had publicly supported #SaudiArabia's controversial campaign in #Yemen that sparked the outcry over #US arms sales to the country."…
911 cost #Saudi 100 millions in PR, just in the aftermath. #Khashoggi might cost them more. It will cost MBS the throne, a reconciliation with #Qatar, without face saving, and deference to #Erdogan, at least in the near future...
#Erdogan cld have handled #Khashoggi disappearance differently. Instead of sending not so subtle messages to the #US, by creating a circus of leaks, he could have seized the occasion to definitively turn his back & stay firmly in #Russia & #Iran's orbits to lead a moderate Islam
#Iran & #Russia both fought Sunni extremism, they're needed for guidance on the road to a more tolerant Islam. However, #Erdogan, again, seems to chose his sect & its master, the #US, by trying to use #Khashoggi for better relations with the US, despite US turning its back on him
#Guardian publishes article on #MohamadBinSalman, illustrates with a photo of MBS & #Putin. Comparisons are made in wstrn media between the two. Reality is: West cultivated the tyrant MBS & promoted him as a reformer while maligning Putin, photo made to make us forget this fact.
This is why I deeply distrust photos and videos in journalism. They mislead by using gross analogies, suggestions and innuendo.
Note that very little has been said by #Russia/n officials on #Khashoggi, it is not their burden, but the West's.
What is the #US to do if their latest disgruntled tyrant won't go? We have a new Saddam on our hands here. What a mess. #Khashoggi
"#SaudiArabia said on Sunday it would retaliate to possible economic sanctions taken by other states over the case of Jamal #Khashoggi"…
#Israel: we are innocent of #Khashoggi's blood. I am not sure of this, every dirty operation in the ME must have Israel's signature, directly or indirectly, and the Saudi hit team looks like the Mossad hit team sent to Dubai to assassinate a Hamas official…
#Israel is anxious that it may be associated too much with #MohammadBinSalman, but this is disingenuous because everyone knows that there won't be any change in #Saudi policy on Israel with the elimination of MBS from the throne.
#Saudi ministry of Foreign Affairs today.
#Khashoggi disappearance and reactions reveal, more than anything else, the fracture lines in the ME: different factions in #Saudi, aligned with diff factions in the US, Turkey & Qatar looking for allies in the West, and Palestinians more divided than ever
#MBS might have ordered the killing of Khashoggi on a whim, but those trying to profit from this murder hope for a realignement against #Iran that will manifest itself first in #Syria, but it won't happen, the fractures run deep and they won't be fixed with the death of one man.
#MohammadBinSalman fights back against pressures to resign the succession to the throne. He is not the type to listen to the elders. #Saudi Arabia in a fight for succession, fightback from EU countries, India, China, against #Iran sanction. #Trump's Iran strategy is in shambles.
Excellent assessment from @BhadraPunchline on the #Saudi situation.…
And this was my assessment three days ago, read the thread down:
1/#Canada, after a public slap on the face from #SaudiArabia back in August, had remained mostly silent on #Khashoggi, until today. It has now joined the globalist punditry in the #UK and the #US to do something about #Khashoggi. Note that same punditry is still silent on #Yemen.
2/ This tells us that there is a will in the West to remove #MohammadBinSalman, who is now discovering that if you are made by the west, you will be unmade by the West.
3/ All this was decided without #Trump's knowledge & prob to wrestle control of Trump's influcence in #Saudi. It is not a coïncidence that #Canada was openly critical of MBS in August. Freeland's tweet critical of Saudi was made in Arabic & without the knowledge of Canada's amb.
4/ This means that the plan to unseat #MohammadBinSalman was probably already in motion back in August. Freeland, Canada's FM, is well connected among the globalist punditry.
5/ But western leaders and their punditry know #MohammadBinSalman well. They know he won't renounce easily. So what we are witnessing here is a deliberate attempt to destabilize #SaudiArabia via a bloody and lengthy succession battle in order to get at #Iran. #Khashoggi
6/ Demanding answers from #Saudi over #Khashoggi is a win-win situation for the West. If MBS resigns, they can operate a realignement over #Syria and federate Sunnis under #Turkey's lead to bend the current situation in Syria in their favour again.
7/ If #MohammadBinSalman doesn't resign, we are going to see a destabilisation of the kingdom through internecine wars. A destabilisation of #Saudi can threaten #Iran.
8/ Since #Trump's #Iran policy is going nowhere, with EU, India, China, & others trying to get around sanction, and since the neocons in his administration are good at destabilising countries, destabilising #Saudi is a last resort to get at Iran #Khashoggi
If destabilising #SaudiArabia is the price to get at #Iran, the Neocons will do it. #Khashoggi
The Neocons have no friends in the ME, but only fungible entities to serve their hidden purposes and agenda; #Israel's dominance in the region.
Destabilising #SaudiArabia will basically open an entire country to unaccountable armed groups that will threaten the entire Gulf region, not only #Iran. Meanwhile, #Israel can continue its illegal occupation and genocide of Palestinians.
Arabs and Muslims need to wake up from their dogmatic torpor and defeat the neocons' designs for the region.
How do you want to do your work honestly as a journalist when the whole #Khashoggi story was brought to attention, and solved, based only on leaks, without a shred of evidence for the public in official statements, except that the man entered the #Saudi consulate & did not leave?
Malbrunot: the face saving story that #Trump suggested for the killing of #Khashoggi will weaken and marginalize MBS, but it won't unseat him, as long as he has Trump's support, while Khashoggi's DC contacts won't be satisfied with this denouement.…
It seems that we are heading toward a slow destabilisation of the kingdom of #SaudiArabia, because with Bin Salman staying as crown prince, even marginalised, nothing will be the same again. The question is: how will MBS react to his marginalisation? Not well, imho. #Khashoggi
1. Destabilising KSA will have the same effect on Iran as the destabilisation of Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria, even worse.
2. MBS is not only CP, he is the de facto ruler. If anything this crisis taught us it is that the king is dysfunctional.
The Wapo and the NYT and all those who owns them or live by them will not be satisfied with the deal that #Khashoggi was killed by rogue elements or by accident.
1/ Today on @TheCurrentCBC (podcast soon), a #Saudi dissident living in #Canada spoke how his safety is being taken care of by the RCMP, how he was in contact with #Khashoggi who co tacted Saudi dissidents abroad after he went into voluntary exile to launch a regime change op.
2/ #Khashoggi, very much like Rafik #Hariri, was well connected. And it appears that he was using his network to depose #MohammadBinSalman. #Turkey must have been at the center of this operation. rest assured, this has nothing to do with democracy & freedom, it's a factional war
3/ This is not a speculation. #Khashoggi's contacts are now ousting him. And the more they speak, the more we realize that it was a large operation involving more than one group operating in more than one country. I am not excluding #Canada's FM.
4/ The #Saudi dissident who spoke to @TheCurrentCBC today told them that Saudi officials tried to lure him to their embassy in Ottawa to renew his passport and he didn't go. How could #Khashoggi be lured in a trap that inspired fear in a lower rank dissident?
5/ The answer to this question si simple: #Khashoggi must have had assurances from Turkish officials about his safety when going inside the consulate. We know he left his cellphone with his Turkish fiancée with the number of a Turksih official to contact if things go wrong.
6/ Conclusion: #Turkey failed to protect #Khashoggi when assurances must have been given about his protection. Some are asking who sent Khashoggi to the Turkish consulate instead of the US consulate. The answer to this question is of the utmost importance.
.@asadabukhalil's article on #Khashoggi is a must to understand the man, his country, and become immune to the current propaganda in western media to paint Khashoggi as a freedom fighter (just like Bin Laden before him)…
Lindsay Graham is an unsubtle neocon mouthpiece
What is happening in #SaudiArabia with the #Khashoggi disappearance and probable murder is a factional war between princes, eligible to the throne, and their western sponsors. It has nothing to do with freedom and democracy. Give me a break!
I harbour no doubts about the barbarity of #SaudiArabia's ruling elite. But each day, since Khashoggi's disappearance, we are treated to even more gruesome details, filtered by anonymous sources. We are not being informed. We are told to believe. There is a slippery slope here.
While #Khashoggi has been grabbing the headlines for the last 2 weeks, northern #Syria, where Turkey has the most tangible involvement, has seen a difficult demilitarisation process in #Idlib, clashes between Turkish backed rebels & SAA, negos with #US over #Manbij still ongoing.
#Syria is at the heart of every visit by #US officials to the region to discuss #Khashoggi. While #Russia sent a delegation yesterday to #Saudi, only Syria was on the agenda, not Khashoggi.
MBS is opening his pockets to the #US, not to #Turkey. #Erdogan's plan to extract benefits from #Khashoggi's news can only work if MBS is deposed. This may explain the leaks, to irreversibly damage MBS.…
But as long as MBS is protected by #Trump, there is nothing for Turkey. Now it's become clear that #Erdogan release Brunson to get Trump to approve his plan to remove MBS. Trump may still do it but not before milking the situation to a max. #Khashoggi
MBS is not out of the wood yet, but as long as he opens his pockets, he will still be protected. Remember how the West milked #Gaddafi, and before him, #Saddam? Now America's favourite autocrat is walking the walk of Saddam and Gaddafi. #Khashoggi
Now we know who lured #Khashoggi to the Istanbul consulate: it was no other than Mohammad Bin Salman’s brother, #Saudi amb to the #US
“What happened to #Khashoggi in Turkey, to put it bluntly, is not only an operation against him, but also an operation against Turkey.”…
"Until Erdogan confirms, '#Khashoggi will not be dead for sure.'"
I believe this is an accurate account of what happened to Jamal #Khashoggi.…
The Americans knew of what was coming #Khashoggi's way. Are Erdogan's leaks intended to embarrass them too?…
Interesting thread from @helenacobban on #Khashoggi and the role the Muslim Brotherhood might have played in sealing his fate.
1/ #Kahshoggi in his last column for The Washington Post (not giving link, not worth reading): Tunisia, Morocco, Koweit have free press, Lebanon doesn't because of Iran. The Arab world needs free press & the Washington Post is trying to by translating my articles into Arabic.
2/ This is ironic from a man who worked all his life, except the last year, for a press controlled by #Saudi princes. #Khashoggi
This is funny. Now you understand why most foreign participants are declining to join the #Saudi Future Investment Initiative at the end of October.

The State Dep has denied that Pompeo has heard any voice recording of #Khashoggi. Now, if this is not arm twisting by #Erdogan, I don't know what is.
I think, from the start, Erdogan understood that he had to have the #US on the same side if he wanted to remove Mohammad Bin Salman, this explains the leaks, to embarrass Trump, and now Turkey is contradicting Pompeo on the audio recordings.
The Washington Post has found its martyr Saint, and it is #Khashoggi.
Premise false & argument tendencious. Premise says those trying to highlight #Khashoggi's past as a Mujahid, and Muslim Brotherhood leaning, are belittling #Saudi crimes, while argument belittles another aspect of Khashoggi, subservience to Saudi regime.…
I started this thread on #Khashoggi with the same assumption, but western commentators prefer to reduce this to a simple struggle between their hero and MBS:…
"#Khashoggi’s death in Istanbul has much deeper roots in a larger battle for regional hegemony."
"#Khashoggi, who picked Erdoğan in this struggle for influence, is perhaps the most striking casualty of this war within the Sunni world."
What a mess. If #MohammadBinSalman hadn't turned against #Qatar at the urge of #UAE, #Israel, #Kushner & #Trump, Erdogan would have never had the opportunity to wrestle leadership of Sunnis from Gulf monarchies because Qatar would have prioritized its GCC role above all.
#Saudi authorities have now admitted the death of #Khashoggi, their 'explanation' is too casual to implement strong accountability for a horrible murder.
There seems to be a campaign to make #Khashoggi a saint. The mainstream media are all beating the same drum, that if we criticize Khashoggi, we are absolving his killers. Remind me again, what did Khashoggi stand for?
The barbarism with which #Khashoggi was killed betrays a personal vendetta: the current #Saudi regime could not tolerate that one of their own has turned against them.
First, they made Arabs fight against other Arabs, then they made Sunnis fight against Shias, now they're making Sunnis fight each other. And all these wars are shaking currently the Arab and Muslim worlds, making it forget Palestine, its own good and the future of its youth.
External tyranny, in other words, colonialism, can endure only because it creates internal tyranny and strife.
#Saudi authorities found a ridiculous face saving excuse to admit #Khashoggi was murdered at their consulate. It took them 17 days. Now, the number one suspect in this gruesome murder, #MohammadBinSalman, is in charge of fixing things up. This won't do.…
My initial hypothesis that either MBS is sidelined from the succession and there is reset in the way #Saudi do things with Turkey, Qatar and the US, with a triumphant Erdogan taking the reins, or MBS stays, and things will go downhill. Expect things to go downhill then #Khashoggi
Now, watch the #Saudi change their version of the killing of #Khashoggi as pressure mounts on #Trump, and relations deteriorate.
After his self imposed exile, #Kahshoggi spoke to @rulajebreal, he was still deferential to the Saudi royal family and hopeful that Mohammad bin Salman, "'an old-fashioned tribal leader,' could yet be steered toward reason."…
I think those hoping for the departure of Mohammad Bin Salman and a reset in #Saudi relations with Qatar, Turkey, and the West are too optimistic. The guy won't go easily. He controls everything, even his father the king.
However, Mohammad Bin Salman's capital outside and inside #Saudi Arabia has completely eroded, he is now feared not only by his enemies, but also by his allies whom he is willing to sacrifice. This creates an unstable and critical situation for Saudi, the region and the West.
The only ones who can still profit from this highly volatile situation are the UAE, Kushner, Trump and Israel because they have Mohammad bin Salman's ear, and because of his isolation. I am sure they will lead him and lead #Saudi to its doom.
The country that's called #Saudi, invented by the UK and consolidated by the West for its black treasures, appears now in its full fragility, depending on those who invented it to continue to exist. What if they decide that this country is now disposable?
Turkish academic: The murder of #Khashoggi was a reckless act that annihilates Riyadh's efforts to polish the #Saudi image in the West. Khashoggi was well connected, was a prominent figure in the media and had close relations with some inside #US elite.…
Michel Duclos: From now on, #US & #Turkey will have more say in #Saudi internal affairs. Bin Salman is protected by Trump for now but in the long run, the US will operate a rebalancing of power in favour of Bin Nayef who has the trust of #US mil & security estbalishment.
Both academics agree: #Khashoggi's murder at the Istanbul consulate will have far reaching effects. It will weaken #Saudi on the regional scene and strengthen Erdogan who will put pressure on Riyadh to stop its material support for Kurds in #Syria
1/ The mainstream press is still mum on the most important aspects of #Khashoggi's murder: who lured Khashoggi to the Istanbul consulate? Was it really for divorce papers? Why did Khashoggi meet #Saudi amb to #US, Mohammad Bin Salman's brother, four times, before he met his fate?
2/ I think those who believe #Kahshoggi went to the Istanbul consulate for divorce papers are really naive. Khashoggi was actively working at organizing an opposition to Mohammad Bin Salman abroad and rallying those disgruntled at home, not to mention closeness to Erdogan.
3/ At the same time, #Khashoggi was still very much part of the #Saudi monarchy, he still believed that he can influence Mohammad bin Salman. There are many indications about this, he wanted to advise the young prince, see also interview with Rula Jebreal.…
4/ What could draw #Khashoggi to the Istanbul consulate? A big deal, a deal with Mohammad bin Salman. Maybe he was even promised a secret meeting with the crown prince.
5/ #Khashoggi might have given Erdogan and his entourage a hint about the purpose of his consulate visit. I can't imagine the two Saudi planes went unnoticed by Turkish intel. A promise to meet Bin Salman might have quieted Turkish intel suspicions about the two planes.
6/ This also exlains why #Kahshoggi's fiancée waited so long to alert their contact. Divorce papers don't take four hours to complete. If it were for divorce papers, she might have been alarmed earlier. Only an important matter could have kept Khashoggi so long at the consulate
7/ It is also known that #Khashoggi spoke to Mohammad Bin Salman by phone while at the consulate. Did he expect to see him in person? Was the phone communication to explain his absence?
9/ How can Mohammad Bin Salman think he can get away with murder in Istanbul? He must have received assurances from high up, in the #US. How can #Khashoggi walk into the Istanbul consulate without fearing for his life? He received assurances from an AKP figure close to Erdogan.
10/ Please note here that in the aftermath of #Khashoggi's murder, and up until now, three weeks later, neither Erdogan, nor Trump, let alone the main suspect, Mohammad Bin Salman, control the narrative. We are being served leak after leak, sometimes contradictory.
11/ My conclusion, based on all the above, is: the #Khashoggi murder, although no doubt ordered and done by Mohammad bin Salman, is typically a deep state op, one deep state working and coordinating in the #US and #Turkey at the same time. And we all know who that deep state is.
12/ Tomorrow, Erdogan will speak. He will try to control the narrative. But I am not expecting much clarity nor a resolution of this issue soon. #Khashoggi
13/ The #Khashoggi operation is a much sophisticated form of the #Skripal operation because there is a great degree of coordination between the #US and #Turkey on the level of the deep state, while with the Skripals, the UK deep state had to have the involuntary help of 2 clowns.
14/ Everywhere in the West, the democratic process is declining while we see the rise of weak leaders. The deep state is trying to delay the inevitable decline of the West and the realignement that's already in motion.
14/ And, of course, I do not mention the #Saudi deep state because it is part and parcel of the #US deep state, as much as #Israel's is.
15/ And I do not mention the #Saudi deep state because it is part and parcel of the #US deep state, as much as #Israel's is.
16/ #Khashoggi's murder could result in a realignement that leaves more unity in the Sunni axis in the Gulf & the Levant that could profit Turkey. But I would still watch my back if I were Erdogan because those who engineered this will try to get at him too amid the realignement
17/ Here we go, the 'geopolitics of the #Khashoggi murder' is to unify #Sunnis under a reliable leadership, understand reliable for the permanent/deep state in the West. The guy who wrote this is an ex #CIA Kabul station chief.…
#MohammadBinSalman will be destituted overnight, before Erdogan's speech to parliament on #Khashoggi, or #SaudiArabia becomes officially the rogue regime that it has always been.………
As expected, Erdogan spoke to Turkish parliament not to make explosive revelations about #Khashoggi's murder, but to contradict #Saudi official explanation of the murder as an unfortunate acccident, confirming it was a planned murder, with few new details.…
Mohammad Bin Salman's purge and his father's health makes it unlikely that he is going away soon. The stage is then set for an open struggle between #Turkey and #Qatar on one side, #Saudi & #Trump on the other side.
This struggle between #Saudi & #Trump on one side and #Turkey's Erdogan and #Qatar on the other will be wider. Alastair Crooke argues that #Khashoggi's murder is an 'isolated event' that captures 'a moment' when the 'slide' becomes irreversible.…
#Erdogan is negotiating with the #US, not with #Saudi. He will keep things for himself as long as it takes to bring the US back to a position that strengthens his hands in the ME and the Gulf. He doesn't want to antagonize Trump too much now.
Alastair Crooke identifies 3 possible tipping points brought about by the murder of #Khashoggi:
Deterioration of #US-#Saudi relations
Decline of #Saudi and rise of 'reformist Islam' à la Muslim Brotherhood as championed by Erdogan
#Israel's strategy in the ME into question.
#Erdogan this morning: "Why has the body of someone who was officially said to be killed not been found yet?"
Turkish anonymous sources to Sky News, same day: "remains discovered in the garden of the #Saudi consul general's Istanbul home"… #Khashoggi
Masterful analysis: Faisal Devji on #Khashoggi and the internal struggle for political relevance within Islam.…
Mohammad Bin Salman has no idea that he is about to be forced from power if he is not willing to go by his own will.… #Khashoggi
There is buzz today that Mohammad Bin Salman is making amends, saying nice things about Qatar and Turkey. The guy is pathetic, his daddy Trump is about to give up on him, and no one believe him.
#France follows #US suit in slapping sanctions on Mohammad Bin Salman's henchmen. Yawn!
Why isn't anyone paying attention to the well being of #Khashoggi's children? They are hostages of Mohammad bin Salman.
Weird statement, for sure. But what should we expect from a joint investigation, including #Saudi?
In the first Act of the #Khashoggi drama, #Erdogan played the #US against #Saudi and partially failed to put the US totally on his side in this Sunni dispute. Now, in his second Act of the drama, Erdogan is playing Saudi against the US.
In the long run, #Erdogan, if he is still the undisputable authority in #Turkey, will win this struggle, because the #US is itself divided on what to do in this dispute among its Muslim allies in the ME and the Gulf, and because Saudi are becoming a liability to the US.
But #Erdogan must not forget the 2016 coup.
#Erdogan of course doesn't forget the 2016 coup and his his chief advisor attack on Sisi while saying Saudi king not involved in #Khashoggi murder is telling. He is signalling that Erdogan won't be overthrown like Morsi.
If the statement of Erdogan chief advisor about Saudi king is conciliatory or if it signals a deal, he wouldn't have attacked Egypt and Sisi. #Khashoggi
Those who think that a deal is done on #Khashoggi, after #Erdogan's chief advisor statements and Saudi general prosecutor admission of premeditated murder, are wrong. Erdogan is tightening the noose very gradually on the kingdom and attacking laterally.
Yesterday, everyone thought a deal was done. Wrong. Today #Erdogan announces he has more material about #Khashoggi murder. My thought is that Haspel didn't see everything in Erdogan's possession. Saudi general prosecutor is expected in Istanbul on Sunday.…
#Erdogan's strategy is the following, he is going to appear conciliatory but at the same time, he is going to use the information he has to poison Saudi king reputation irreversibly to the point where the only option is regime change in Saudi, to Erdogan's liking. #Khashoggi
Will Erdogan succeed in this strategy? That's another matter. But this is his only chance to assert his Islamist project's regional influence again. The strategy has its own risks, of course. Another coup might be fomented against #Erdogan. #Khashoggi
#Erdogan cannot attack the kingdom frontally. His strategy is to attack laterally, gain time and allies, and preserve Sunni unity. It is now a struggle for control of very ailing kingdom between Erdogan and the West. #Khashoggi
As I said, #Erdogan is attacking the Saudi monarchy laterally, from the sides, and tightening the noose gradually. But even if #Saudi accept these new demands, Erdogan will come up with other demands.
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Sophia
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member and get exclusive features!

Premium member ($30.00/year)

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!