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Celeste P. @Celeste_pewter
, 20 tweets, 11 min read Read on Twitter
Starting to see the (inevitable) hot takes come out on why the Senate Democrats couldn't stop Kavanaugh.

Say it with me now: 🗣 They don't have the majority. 🗣

But good news. We can change that. Here's a quick refresher.
1. At present, the Senate breakdown is 51/49, with the Democrats in the majority.

(Picture (C) - CNN)
2. Confirmation votes and specific forms of legislation usually only require a simple majority or 51 votes, which is *why* it's been so hard to stop cabinet appointments and parts of the Trump agenda.

It's also why it feels like we've had to beg Republicans every key vote.
3. This is made slightly tougher by the fact the Senate Democrats have a VERY challenging map this time around.

26 seats are up for reelection (24 Dems + 2 independents) in November, and several of those seats are in states Trump won with double digits.
4. Those double-digit states do include North Dakota, which is why @HeidiHeitkamp's decision on Kavanaugh was, and still is, such a big deal.

She knew the Trump position (and subsequently, the pro-Kavanaugh position) is popular, and she's still voting against.
5. But if we hold all, or almost all of the existing incumbent seats - e.g. I think Kavanaugh will impact a handful - we can still flip the Senate.

Because we're supported by the fact there's a good crop of challenging Dem candidates, contending for the Republican seats.
6. @kyrstensinema
@espyforsenate
@BetoORourke
@RosenforNevada

Can all conceivably flip their seats.

49+4, 48+4, 48+3, 47+4 - can all win us the Senate.
But the key to doing so, is focusing on the Senate candidates who need it the most.

I know we all have our favorite candidates - like, I stan @AngusKing2018's love of science and his lobster tie - but that's not necessarily a critical race.
Here are the critical 5 ATM:

Claire McCaskill:

Twitter and Instagram: @McCaskill4MO
Campaign website: clairemccaskill.com
Donation: secure.actblue.com/donate/mccaski…

Here's @beckyalbertalli's fact post for her: instagram.com/p/Bl0EUSFgJD8/…
.@McCaskill4MO has been running an incredible campaign called #HandsOffOurCare - search the hashtag for videos - focusing on pre-existing conditions.

Remember: the lawsuit led by Republican states is ongoing. It's an active, serious issue. latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/…
A lot of senators are talking about healthcare, but McCaskill is focusing on what can happen to pre-existing conditions. She gets the dangers, and needs our support.

Here's the latest polling. It's tight: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-e…
Also, because we're all very tired of the world today, I think this video from the Senator will speak to you.

(Seriously, though. How do you not appreciate someone who agrees to do this?)

Jon Tester:

Campaign website: jontester.com
Instagram: @Jontester
Donation: secure.actblue.com/contribute/pag…

Becky's #SenatorSunday facts here: instagram.com/p/BliBP4iAxd8/…
Tester's race was moved to a toss-up over the last couple of days: cookpolitical.com/user/login?des…

And this concerns me, a lot. He's likely feeling the impact from Kavanaugh. Please donate AND volunteer if possible.
Joe Donnelly (IN)

Campaign website:joeforindiana.com
Instagram: @donnellyforindiana
Donation: secure.actblue.com/donate/donate-…

@beckyalbertalli's Donnelly fact post: instagram.com/p/BnyTiLzHiK6/…
Donnelly won his last Senate race by 147,560 votes in a stunning upset last time around, partially because Richard Mourdock made a VERY poorly planned timed comment about assault.

(Adding a cw for the article) politico.com/story/2012/11/…
He's likely feeling the heat from the Kavanaugh battle too. Donate AND volunteer.

And if you're in kidlit, @Saille is looking for volunteers.
Heidi Heitkamp:

Campaign website: heidifornorthdakota.com
Instagram: @heidi4ND
Donation: secure.actblue.com/contribute/pag…

Becky's handy facts: instagram.com/p/BmqQbbqAi-m/…

You know why.
Finally: @BobMenendezNJ. I’m gathering more information on him, but we’re in serious danger of losing his seat. fivethirtyeight.com/features/democ…
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