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Thread by @PeteNorth303: "1. We now know from the government's own no deal technical notices that most, if not all, of the no deal warnings have a basis in fact. The […]" #Brexit

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1. We now know from the government's own no deal technical notices that most, if not all, of the no deal warnings have a basis in fact. The fact that Theresa May is not attempting to spin them tells it's own story... She knows no deal is not an option.

#Brexit thread
2. She therefore has to make concessions to reality that she has long been avoiding, which of course the Ultras will absolutely hate. They then have two options. Like it and lump it or topple the government. If they do the former then they lose all their power.
3. Should they do the latter they are then confronted with the same basic dilemmas. Their WTO option is a busted flush and they can't have their fantasy Canada deal and certainly not without conceding to the backstop. They face the identical dilemma to Mrs May.
4. This is why they will probably bottle it because it;s easier for them to end up with a crappy Brexit then blame TM - claiming she was the remainer who sold us out. Anything but accept responsibility and acknowledge their role in this.
5. So we then end up with something that pretty much is a customs union without calling it a customs union, regulatory alignment with direct applicability of ECJ decisions and dozens of peripheral concessions to the EU - along with an NI backstop.
6. That then scuppers the Tory right's free trade delusions which is no bad thing for now but this situation then gravitates to an FTA, which even with a customs union does not eliminate EU third country controls and we still take a massive hit to EU trade.
7. In respect of that an FTA is only marginally less dreadful than the WTO option where all we really do is delay the cliff edge while we buy time to prepare - which will probably not be long enough. The transition most likely gets extended for as long as it takes to complete FTA
8. So thanks to the Ultras closing down the EEA option we will in fact be on a very tight leash and a powerless rule taker for the duration in what could very easily be leveraged by the next government into a permanent vassalage - or re-accession.
9. That was always the key advantage of EEA in that out is out and because it is viable we would continue on that path. For all its overstated disadvantages it has the virtue of getting us out and not torching the economy.
10. This, though, is not going to sink in with the Ultras or the Brexit blob. They will whine and cry about it and wail about betrayal demanding that we leave without a deal even if it short dicks every cannibal on the congo. No sensible government can allow this.
11. For those of us who are sane, however, if there is a Withdrawal Agreement, we need to focus on spelling out that an FTA with however many plusses is not going to be adequate single market participation and without a whole Uk solution the backstop will kick in.
12. It took the media a while to work out how bad the WTO option would be and it will take them a while longer to work out that an FTA isn't much better and many of the no deal technical notices will still apply and still the Ultras will have no answers.
13. It should then become abundantly obvious to all that the only way we can leave with our hide in tact without being on a direct leash is to go via the EEA and join Efta. There is then at least a firewall between us and the EU. That then eliminates the need for CU and backstop.
14. The hardcore Brexiters really don;t have any answers and the more they wail about the EEA the more likely it is we will end up in a perpetual Brexit limbo as a rule taker and with no ability to strike FTAs. Brexiters will have destroyed their dream through their obstinacy.
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