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Grant Gregory @GrantrGregory
, 10 tweets, 7 min read Read on Twitter
A thread on @WholeFoods and elections: @Redistrict recently wrote that Dems will perform the best in areas that are geographically close to Whole Foods (WF). I decided to map/calculate the # of Whole Foods by congressional district to test his theory on WF and elections (1/9)
So first, the basics. There are 470 WF across the U.S., and 233/435 CD's have at least 1 WF in them. WF districts did tend to prefer Clinton over Trump, as they had an average 2016 pres. margin of +13 Clinton, while non-WF districts preferred Donald Trump by +8 points. (2/9)
@RepTedLieu’s #CA33, has the highest number of WF (dare I say it’s a Whole Foods gerrymander?!), with 10 WF. The Boston metro also has a large number of WF, with #MA05, and #MA07 (@AyannaPressley's new district) each having 7 (3/9)
#TX08 is the most Republican WF district (+49 Trump), while the most Democratic non-WF district is #NY15 (+89 Clinton), coincidentally Hillary’s best CD in the Country. Also, @RepCurbelo's #FL26 doesn't have a single Whole Foods, while #TX32 has 5 (4/9)
Now, 28/44 of the CD’s @UpshotNYT has polled so far are WF districts. Among those districts, the Dem candidate margin avg. has been -1, while the non-WF district Dem candidate margin avg. has been +.4, suggesting that Dems are actually doing a touch worse in WF districts. (5/9)
More importantly, WF districts are barely over-performing their 2016 pres. margins (just +.6 net avg. over-performance), while Non-WF districts (#IA01, #KS02, #PA08 and #WV03 especially) are vastly over-performing their 2016 baseline (+10 net avg. over-performance). (6/9)
Obviously, these dynamics are nuanced in like a million different ways, but the #’s are interesting and give @Redistrict's Whole Foods hypothesis a run for its money (which, we recognize, is really more of a foil for WWC districts vs. white-collar Clinton/Romney districts) (7/9)
Anyways, this has been a very fun thread to do – and virtually entirely useless in the realm of political analysis – but I did think it was a fun project and I’m glad y’all came along for the ride! (8/9)
A note on methodology: I acquired Whole Foods addresses from their website, and then geocoded those coordinates over a congressional district map. CD pres #’s were acquired from @DailyKos. Spreadsheet here:… (fin.)
An amendment to this thread; WF districts swing pretty definitively towards Democrats in '16 compared to '12, while non-WF districts swung disproportionately towards Republicans. The national margin swing was -2 away from Democrats
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