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Jane Carnall @EyeEdinburgh
, 18 tweets, 10 min read Read on Twitter
We all know now that #VoteLeaveBrokeTheLaw. We all know that Arron Banks has been referred to the NCA for investigation, after @MetPoliceUK declined to look into the @ElectoralCommUK's evidence. MPs are "calling for a pause" in #Brexit.… /1
Unless EU-27 agree to an extension of the two-year #Article50 period, the UK leaves the EU on 29th March 2019. Theresa May clearly stil hopes for some kind of deal that will keep the City of London happy enough with #Brexit: but #NoDealBrexit is a very real possibility. /2
#NoDealBrexit is disastrous, but the UK is woefully unprepared for the massive changes to ensue with any kind of #Brexit: the Tories have treated the Brexit negotiations as a game in which they held all the cards, & in consequence have failed utterly to make any progress. /3
The campaign for a #PeoplesVote makes sense for MPs to support; it means they don't have to go out on a limb & admit #Brexit just isn't going to work. (And if Leave gets a majority in the 2nd #EURef, it buffers them against accusations of supporting a disaster.) /4
But consider the timescale. A referendum needs at minimum 6 months lead time. We are already into borrowed time: #BrexitDay, 29th March 2019, is less than 6 months away. We can't vote to #StopBrexit if we've already left the EU. /5
We would have to ask EU-27 if we can have an extension on the #Article50 period in order to be able to hold the #PeoplesVote. But, there's a hard deadline approaching at the end of May. /6
On 23-26th May 2019, the EU holds the next elections for the European Parliament. Discussions are ongoing about how to redistribute the UK's 73 seats among EU-27. We cannot realistically hope to be extended membership past that date. /7
Even if we were to hold the 2nd EU referendum & the UK European Parliamentary elections on the same day, Thursday 23rd May 2019, if Leave then won, that would void all of the UK MEP's elections & leave 73 empty seats in the European Parliament. /8
But supposing that we did hold the #PeoplesVote on that day, & simultaneously elect 73 MEPs who might or might not have the right to take their seats: to hold a EU referendum on 23rd May means the process must begin by 23rd November - in 3 weeks time. /9
There is no time for a general election in this scenario. If the Parliament we have doesn't agree to hold a #PeoplesVote by Friday 23rd November 2019, it isn't going to happen. We will leave the EU on 29th March 2019 - unless MPs act to stop this. /10
#Brexit is going to be a disaster. Even if you hypothesise that with proper planning & preparation the UK could have achieved a smooth departure from the EU, there has been virtually no planning & not enough preparation. The UK is going to go into recession. /11
If Theresa May fails to cobble together some kind of a deal which is acceptable to her profiteering MPs who are betting the pound will fall, her Eurosceptic MPs who just want to leave the EU, the DUP who wld rather a hard border in Ireland than a soft one between rUK & NI... /12
If the mixter-maxter of Tory and DUP MPs who hold the majority in the UK Parliament right now fail to get some kind of a deal acceptable to them all, then the UK crashes out of the EU in #NoDealBrexit & disaster ensues. /13
There is no majority in the UK Parliament for #NoDealBrexit, but there doesn't have to be; No Deal #Brexit is just what happens when the UK falls out of the EU at the end of the two-year #Article50 period. /14
But #NoDealBrexit is preventable. #Brexit is preventable. If a majority of MPs in Parliament vote to revoke #Article50, and EU-27 accepts that revocation, then the UK stays in the EU.

And that is what our MPs should do. /15
I don't doubt MPs would rather not stick their necks out, would rather have a #PeoplesVote as a bulwark against the charge of ignoring the will of the people.

But nonetheless: #Brexit is a disaster. A majority of MPs can stop it happening. And they should. /16
If you are campaigning for a #PeoplesVote, please remember: if Parliament hasn't launched the process by 23rd November 2019, it is too late. After that date, the only hope to #StopBrexit is for MPs to be brave, to love their country & care for their constituents, & vote. /17
Write to your MP and tell them so. We must #StopBrexit before 29th March 2019. They have the power to stop this slide to disaster by voting in Parliament. They should do so.

/18 /end
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