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Gerardus T. Hauwert @Hauwertsr
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Let's talk about "employment and unemployment" labor statistics.

IF we are ever to "be believed" or "believe in each other", we MUST believe in some set of numbers.

In general, political opponents will (almost always if not always) ARGUE that the numbers are NOT TO BE TRUSTED.
NUMBER LIE and LIARS USE NUMBERS

- "It is also sometimes colloquially used to doubt statistics used to prove an opponent's point."

- Attributed "to the British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli: 'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics'."

(Google/Wiki)
Q: Where do "official" labor statistics come from?

A: Official Labor Statistics come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), a unit of the US Department of Labor (DOL).

Major data releases are * scheduled more than a year in advance * in coordination with the OMB.
"The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) is the largest office within the Executive Office of the President of the United States (EOP)."
- It's job is to produce @POTUS' budget.
- It also measures the quality of agency programs, policies and procedures for compliance.
"Statistics published by the BLS fall into four main categories: .."

1 - Prices
2 - Employment and Unemployment
3 - Compensation and working conditions
4 - Productivity

Specific sources used include:
- en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of…
- bls.gov/cps/faq.htm
- unemploymentdata.com/what-is-u-6-un…
IMO, outside the value of our Faith and it's ability to sustain us and our families even in humility and poverty, the single most emboldening factor of freedom in a general economy is the ability to work and earn more income than we spend.

Money will NOT make you happy; but, ..
.. a job is essential to providing yourself and your loved-ones with the goods and services needed to grow healthy families and relationships.

When PEOPLE are OUT of gainful jobs,
- it signals a "RECESSION".

When YOU are OUT of a gainful job,
- YOU ARE in a "DEPRESSION".
Employment and Unemployment statistics have a significant bearing on the state of our economy and our chances for gainful employment.

Can we trust the numbers? A lot of people don't; so, let's pull together information that MAY give us a REASON TO BELIEVE in the numbers or not.
TERMS:

- TOTAL LABOR FORCE: Age 16+ * NOT * in school, retired or in an institution.

- LABOR FORCE: "Employed" (for income or profit) + "Unemployed" (looking).

- * NOT * in LABOR FORCE: no job, NOT looking (example: going to school, retired, family responsibilities, etc.)
- EMPLOYED: FULL TIME, PART TIME, self-employment and underemployed for income or profit.

- FULL TIME: 30 (ACA), 32 (declared) or 40 hours avg/wk.

- PART TIME: even only 1 hr/wk.

- UNEMPLOYED: no job, actively looking, available, able.
"The basic concepts..

People with jobs are employed.

People who are jobless, looking for a job, and available for work are unemployed.

The labor force is made up of the employed and the unemployed.

People who are neither employed nor unemployed are not in the labor force."
For the purpose of producing "statistics", a worker's status is dependent on a "snapshot in time" during the survey week. For example: did the WORKER get pay or profit during the survey week? Did the UNEMPLOYED worker ACTIVELY LOOK in the FOUR WEEKS prior to survey week?
This latter parameter "ACTIVELY LOOKING for four weeks prior to the survey week" has the intended or unintended consequence of parting-out MANY PEOPLE who are UNABLE to ACTIVELY LOOK for work though many of them "NEED WORK" but, as defined, are neither employed or unemployed.
There is a difference between: not-wanting-to-look, need-but-unable-to-look or need-to-look-but-have-lost-all-hope.

The "need" in these last two cases is a "need for a job" that is NOT REFLECTED in the Employment or Unemployment statistics.

To those in need, it means something.
- DISLOCATED WORKER: laid-off or lost income, exhausted entitlements with barriers to re-employment; LONG-TERM unemployed due to general economics or natural disasters.

- DISPLACED WORKER: laid-off or lost income due to insufficient work, plant or company closings or moves.
- DISCOURAGED WORKER: able and likely willing; but, gave up looking.

ADDING INSULT to INJURY:

There are actually six (6) levels of UNEMPLOYMENT; the "US official" UNEMPLOYMENT statistic is "U3", but because "U6" is the broadest definition, many people think of this as "REAL".
U1 - unemployed 15 or more weeks
U2 - lost job or finished temp work
U3 - no job, actually looked (US OFFICIAL RATE)
U4 - U3 + discouraged
U5 - U4 + not looked (dislocated, displaced)
U6 - U5 + part time wanting full time (PERCEIVED REAL RATE)
REMEMBER:

- EMPLOYED: FULL TIME, PART TIME, self-employment and underemployed for income or profit.

- TOTAL LABOR FORCE: Age 16+ * not * in school, retired or in an institution.

- LABOR FORCE: "Employed" (for income or profit) + "Unemployed" (looking).
RATES:

% Employment = # Employed / # TOTAL-Labor-Force * 100

% Unemployed = # U3-Unemployed / # Employed * 100 (OFFICIAL)

% Unemployed = # U6-Unemployed / # Employed * 100 (worst-case)

So.., people in groups thought to have been overlooked ARE actually "accounted for".

/end
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