This elevator, like most ND soy industry, specializes in sales to China. They're the US's westernmost soy region & can offer lowest transportation costs to Pacific ports.
The real question is whether those winter & spring trains are gonna come.
There's nothing natural or inevitable about this export market.
But they weren't. China bought US soy bc our marketing convinced an entire generation of Chinese buyers that US soybeans are the best soybeans.
That value proposition is gone.
"Some nations that grow soybeans, like Canada, are shipping their own beans to China at high prices & then buying American beans at lower prices to meet domestic demand."
For a low margin business, this is devastating just in the short term.
Those new relationships won't just go away if/when tariffs are resolved. They'll have a lot more options to to buy from than they did last year.
That ain't how any of this works.
They'll just grow it somewhere else.
Thing is, the problem isn't that China's sneaky or amazing at manufacturing. It's that the US is really, really bad at manufacturing.
And NONE OF THAT WOULD MATTER IF WE HAD OUR ACT TOGETHER ENOUGH TO MAKE OUR STUFF OURSELVES. WE DON'T. WE SHOULD BE WORRIED ABOUT *THAT.*
"During the first six weeks of the current export year, which began in Sept, American soybean exports to China are down by about six million tons from last year, while soybean exports to the rest of the world are up by only three million tons."
China's not going to suddenly get desperate for more soy in 3-6 months. That's when the Latin America crop comes in. And LaAtm's had plenty of notice to plant big acres this yr.