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Larry Schweikart @LarrySchweikart
, 21 tweets, 5 min read Read on Twitter
1) Sorry, I was hoping we'd have a result from AZ, but it's looking like there are half a million Maricopa ballots still out. That "should" bode well for McSally, but in this crazy season, who knows?

2) My projections were part right, part wrong.
3) I said we should have a senate gain of 4-7 seats, and if Arizona holds on and has a net 4, that will be at the lower end of my senate projection. More on that, but in short, a terrible blown opportunity. We easily should have had 8 or 9 seats.

4) My House projection sucked.
5) I said we should hold by 8-15 seats. We lost by 40. That's the horrible news.

6) It "looks" with recounts abound, that we elected governors in OH, AZ, TX, FL, GA, VT, CT. Two of these were blowouts (AZ, TX) and I predicted DeSantis by about half a point, so not bad there.
7) OVERALL, the weirdest election I have ever seen in my life: You had states like OH where the GOP governor won, and the House members held . . . but Rs lost the senate race. In FL, you had a governor elected against high odds, and a senator, but lost some house seats.
8) Likewise, you had very strong performances by a governor in TX and AZ, but underperformance at the senate and house.

9) In short, there are few overarching lessons you can take from this. But there are a couple of big ones:

10) First, not a good night for neverTrumpers.
11) Carlos Curbelo, Mike Coffman, Erik Paulsen, Mia Love & many other neverTrumpers were given the boot. Those who clung to Trump tended to survive. Rick Scott, Ron DeSantis, Marsha Blackburn, Mike Braun, and Randy Cramer stuck to Trump like glue.
12) "Mia Love gave me no love, and she lost." President is right now calling out Roskam, Faso, and Comstock for their lack of support. GOOD CALL.

13) Now, in the House, it's important to note---and here I was 100% DEAD ON---that this would be an "edge" election . . .
13) . . . and we would see "30-40 races [actually was higher] races at ALL levels decided by under 2 points. It looks as though we have 10 House races determined by less than a point, some by a few hundred votes as of this writing.
14) Trump pointing out right now what I believe to be the absolute truth: when your margin is tiny (51 in the Senate) you are at the total mercy of one or two dicknipples (Are you listening McTurd?)

15) Well, this WILL happen to the Ds even though they stick together better.
15) contd. Now Ds will be at the mercy of a handful of, on the one hand, "moderates" (the few that there are) or on the other hand, the whackadoodles. As we saw in the Senate this can be a killer. Pete Sessions claims the "thumbs down" alone cost him his seat.
16) And, of course, there was the outrageous "early call" of the House with 2 dozen close races being counted and 200 seats not yet decided. Given that some people, such as MacArthur in NJ, were viewed as sure losers yet survived, there is no way to know how much Faus hurt Rs.
17) On the use of early/absentee votes vs. polling, I think for the most part, the absentee/early projections were superior. The polling, aside from Change, @PPDNews were horrible.

Remember the Nelson +17 poll? Only a couple of polls on the last day had DeSantis ahead.
18) In the future, I think ANY pollster must pay far more attention to the early/absentee vote; while we "counters" MUST have some input from legit pollsters such as @Peoples_Pundit.

In FL, for example, Baris early had Scott doing better with Hispanics than Trump.
19) More important, he told me that his AZ polling showed indies were going heavily for Enema until the caravan showed up, and overnight the main issue flipped to immigration. Well, that STRONGLY weighted the early/absentee indies against Rs until it flipped.
19) conted. I had seen McSally internals, which had weighted indies as +7 for Enema. I thought that was way off. Well, in retrospect, it will likely prove dead on---until the caravan.

But the later votes, esp. in Maricopa "should" favor McSally. We'll see.
20) In the future, I think a good combination of solid polling with counting techniques will yield a much better result. That said, house polling is always very, very iffy and hard to count.

21) One last depressing note: several states flipped to trifectas where . . .
21) . . both houses of a state legislature are blue and now the governor is blue. This is NOT good. On the other hand, the victory of Mike DeWine in OH and Ron DeSantis in FL mean that in two absolutely key R states for 2020, R governors control redistricting.
22) So what @rushlimbaugh says about Zero losing seats at a record clip now has to be re-assessed. We lost a lot of seats nationwide, though held Wisconsin and held Minnesota's senate.

23) Last point: in the senate it is key that the Cuckateers are no longer in a position . . .
23) contd . . to derail legislation (if we get any out of the House) or to hold up a Supreme Court nomination. Even with Minion--and I'm sure he'll try to lead the Cuckateer movement--Blackburn, Cramer, Braun, Hawley now give us an advantage in those battles.
24) Thanks for being patient. I'd still like a few more races called, but had to get something out.

I will give you unvarnished truth as I see it, not sugar coated. This was a mixed result. Should have been much better, could have been much worse. But I won't lie to you . . .
. . . either for clicks or follows. I make no money off this. It's a labor of love. And sorry if I couldn't answer every DM or email or text.

Now, MAGA!
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