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Pete North @PeteNorth303
, 8 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
One way or another a British prime minister will sign the NI backstop. Either it will be May as part of a negotiated exit deal or by someone else after we crash out when the EU is calling all the shots and demanding all its own terms.

Should we crash out then if even half of no deal warnings are true (and there is plenty evidence to suggest they are) then UK has zero leverage of any kind and will simply have to concede to whatever the EU puts on the table just to reopen talks - as no deal cannot stay no deal.
There is really no way to avoid a backstop of some sort. A review clause is the best we can hope for. The best strategy is to sign it then make damn sure it never gets activated by joining Efta and retaining the EEA. The remaining issues are then far simpler to resolve.
Most of the checks pertain to regulatory issues which are addressed by EEA and the Union customs Code eliminates the need for physical borders. CU not needed. Remainder issues resolved by WTO waivers that no third party can realistically challenge and win.
We then have a framework for future cooperation with hard coded obligations to "simplify" (eliminate) the remaining formalities. That gives the EU a level of assurance which allows it to show more flex than we have seen over the course of Article 50.
The smart thing then to do would be to take broader soundings from Efta members on the issue of FoM to see if they feel the same. we can then launch our own reform proposal with Article 112 as our won backstop - which is easily justified.…
It should also be noted that EEA could mean a lot of the undesirable aspects in respect of citizens rights in the withdrawal agreement are demoted to the status of backstop. It would do a lot to simplify relations. The "clean Brexit" is actually very messy.
The smart thing to do would be to attempt to resolve the issues between Switzerland and EU and bring Switzerland into the EEA, strengthening our case for reforming it and coming up with a new deal for FoM. - The EU is already working on making FoM fairer.
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