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mcm-ct.com @mcm_ct
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#Chart #EXTRAVAGANZA

Please read the whole thread - will start posting now...but eating dinner so will take a while to get the 30 to 40 tweets done

/1
Given the two crashes in one year and the recent #FANG blow up...how much cash do you think Mutual Funds are holding? How about the lowest ever!

More over their allocations to Stocks remain among the highest ever.

/2
And how are those stock/equity investments postured?

We’ll very precariously as #NYSE and #Nasdaq #Composite show...completely stopped at major resistance...not only that there is the breadth question which we will address later and is terrible

/3
Then there is the breadth...the markets did not make major lows into 2600 which can be seen by the tepid extremes new lows and 10 day new lows in broad markets participation and also in sectors which will be posted separately

#NYSE

/4
While this last low was slightly stronger than Jan’s its no where near the level of major lows from the past in years of new high - new lows
$nyse

/5
Put/call ratios have fallen to levels that I have usually occurred at recent hi is not near a recent lows
$spx. $nyse

/6
While longer-term put/call ratios have not reached levels usually seen at emotional lows
#SPX $SPX $NYSE

/7
After years of outperforming relative prices, NYSE new highs minus new Lows have declined/underperformed for the last year and are now falling off a cliff

$SPX #SPX #NYSE

/8
While the markets have bounced, asset allocations remain skeptical. Actually very skeptical. Given the intensity, it appears they need to become more skeptical before they get over done eno8 th to be meaningful as a reversal signal

#spx $spx

/9
Looking at the SPX breath it’s clear that the last Low’s did not trigger significant enough emotion to be severe. Severe sell offs have generated significantly larger episodes then can be seen on this chart presently...The story is - lows are not in!

#SPX $SPX

/10
Fraud...here is a chart of not a market but a fraud...Bitfinex can not pay out customers while other entities are also struggling but while whales attempt to manipulate the present price to remain stable...it will only last so long before they are blown out imo
$BTC #BTC

/11
#Transports are done...this rebound has hit resistance and it over done finished imo

$TRAN #TRAN

/12
The markets have moved back to among the hieghest overbought levels based on $TRIN ever...statistically while people might feel $SPX has gone through some selling stress, it remains in the top 7 percentile overbought thought history

$SPX #SPX
/13
$VIX is dramatically diverging with #equity markets...presently the inverted $VIX to $SPX divergence is the highest on record which suggests the sh*t is expected to hit a fan sometime soon

/14
For th4 first time ever the $SPX to $TYX (long bond) ratio is suggesting something is very wrong by dropping below $SPX relative performance - our crisis is about debt -nwhich centers it on bonds/rates too

This is a very big deal

/15
What bounce?

$FB and $GOOG are missing in action...among others leadership in equity markets Mays blown up and is nowntu4ning to antileadership

Both securities point much lower and are operating ongoing frauds (though less overt than $TSLA ’s fraud)

/16
$aapl has given up leadership and is failing right at its very bearish downward sloping neckline head and shoulders pattern

/17
#EM ratio to $spx is no where near done which sugggest there is both a lot more work for EM to do and for $SPX to build a base to ramp on...this ratio could head mush lower

/18
While $SPX new lows are not insubstantial they have not risen to levels associated with lasting emotional lows. Moreover, new highs are lagging tremendously not just over recent trading but since 2012

/19
$VIX $VIX #VIX we’ll, what have we here a low WITHOUT AN OVERTHOW OF THE BOLLINGER BAND? how emotional can that be when $VIX is able to be so precisely well behaved?

Answer: NOT EMOTIONAL ENOUGH - NEW LOWS COMING

$SPX $NDX

/21
$SPX ratio to $SSEC has begun bouncing showing that USA #equity markets are likely to catch down to $SSEC collapse - this is a really big deal

/22
Buybacks continue to lag $SPX and the rally off the low...this is very ominous...potency of discretionary buybacks is falling through the floor

/23
Since Sept Advance/Decline been underperforming/diverging with price but on this ramp off the lows both are diverging by a significant percentage...its a huge deal as A/D * volume is lagging price showing buyers arent motivated/committed even in balance w price

$SPX
/24
$TICK...well, here you can see interest in selling markets is leading prices in a big way. In chart 2 you can see that today’s end of the day bounce produce NO BUYER INTEREST AT ALL!

This is a huge deal $SPX

/25
$SPX is near and in some other charts AT RESISTANCE likely completing its counter-trend move - this is key as it will be very difficult for $SPX to push much further without testing the lows again...which likely means making new lows

/25
On subject of $SPX & how big resistance is...look at #SPXHIGHBETA which is dead at resistance & whose trendlines framed $SPX lows of last month (which were overshot) the likelihood is at present SPX is done complete & ready to trap deluded bulls after taking our weak bears

/26
People are calling bottoms and the markets are not even as stressed as July 2007 - which was a cake walk compare to what 2018 has been...there is a huge disconnect between reality and what people are thinking reality is...the wall will hit them hard and fast imo

$SPX

/27
Russell 2000 $RUT is an index chock full of zombie/fraud/insolvent companies. Before $SPX can consider a significant low this ratio will collapse

/28
$NYAD ratio to $CPCE has collapsed relative to the market in recent months and its NOT getting better...this ramp is completely unconfirmed which tells you buyers are not in control of their destiny

/29
$SKEW is tell us that market sentiment and complacency had reached even more epic levels DESpite two well over 10% crashes in one year...this is one of the most troubling charts in our library

$SPX

/30
OEX Put/Call ratios show that there was virtually NO panic at the 2600 lows by professionals. $OEX is the professional’s index...notice that they did panic at the top!

/31
And then there is $TRAN good ole Transports lead the way and now are at BIG resistance...if they breakout then great...but given what we are seeing that seems like the minority probability...this again is BIG!

/32
Want more evidence that the @CNBC narrative is wrong and that it’s actually plausible Garts will get his two times a year begin right allotment in...look at #SPX vs SPX Equal Weight vs the total world index... all at major resistance - Trouble with a capital “T”

/34
In terms of yields - well, would it be surprising that a jaws pattern is in play & assets disconnected from reality? Didn’t think so

SPX to KRE ratio says bond rates are heading for a major adjustment that is readily expected - & lower yields will still ramp #DXY

$TNX $SPX

/33
So where do we stand? Well remember 2000 when the Nasdaq was a leader that became a laggard? Well here we have the exact same thing. #FANG is now a laggard esp vs $SPA as can be seen below...and what happens next? How is the timing?

It’s obvious

/34
How to $SPX vs $INDU vs $NDX look? Interesting question

Pretty troubling imo

/35
Done
On this chart the top pane is #spx & $vix inverted and the bottom pane is 10 & 30 year yields - (sorry lost the labels and didn’t realize it)
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