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Scott Anthony @ScottAnthonyUSA
, 21 tweets, 10 min read Read on Twitter

(Note: We will NEVER know if this is true, but it’s my opinion, this is what happened)
Yesterday, while many were focused (rightfully so) on the beautiful #ArmisticeDay100 ceremony, some of us Aviation types, were scanning the radars (aka, the friendly skies)

All was good, then THIS happened suddenly:

This event was sudden, and began at 13:30 UTC... the aircraft departed Lisbon, Portugal and there was NO IDENTIFIED DESTINATION

(Red Flag number one)
Ok... “So what?” You might be asking right about now.... right?

That’s fair.

But now let’s examine a few items.

First: POTUS SCHEDULE as provided by The White House
The FIRST thing we need to examine is if Lisbon, Portugal and Paris, France are in the exact same time zones. They are not.

Thankfully, Aviation runs on UTC, or “Zulu Time”

It evens the playing field out.

Lisbon is exactly AT UTC, and Paris is 1 Hour BEHIND UTC.
Knowing there’s a -1 hour time difference, it’s nice and simple to convert the time into UTC / Zulu Time in Paris, and have it equal the time of Flight KC1388

(NOTE: I am not asserting Air Astana has done a single thing wrong. I am presenting merely a “threat assessment”)
Looking at the POTUS schedule, and now that we have converted the time into UTC, we can look at what threat vectors may have existed at 13:30UTC-15:00UTC (the same times that flight KC1388 was aimlessly flying around Portugal)
Again, the key time frame is 13:30UTC - 15:00UTC

Is there anywhere on the schedule where the POTUS May be exposed, anywhere, and where a seemingly distressed aircraft may pose a threat issue?

To know that, we need to know if KC1388 could even reach Paris.
Flight KC1388 is an Embraer ERJ-190LR.

It is spec’d at a max cruising speed of Mach 0.82 and has a range of over 2,400 miles.

Lisbon —> Paris is 900 miles. Well within this jet’s range.
BUT, can the Embraer ERJ-190LR make the trip of 900 miles quickly?

Again, it’s spec’d at Mach 0.82

We do some simple math, and realize that if we are CONSERVATIVE, and assume a speed well under Mach 0.82, say 500MPH, then the Embraer ERJ-190LR can reach Paris, France in exactly 108 minutes.
That means, at the slower side of the scale, an aircraft like flight KC1388 could leave Lisbon, Portugal at 13:30UTC, and reach Paris, France at 15:18UTC.

Is the POTUS exposed? Look at the schedule.

At 15:15UTC, POTUS would be arriving at the airport to return to the US.
BUT SCOTT, the Embraer ERJ-190LR goes much faster! Mach 0.82 you said!

Ok, so let’s use the faster speed. That shortens the flight time to 87.1 minutes from Lisbon—> Paris.

Arrival time of 14:57 UTC
Back to the published schedule:

At 14:57 UTC, the POTUS is moving in a motorcade. Or at least is mobile, in one form or another.

That’s an “exposure”
Now again, I MUST clarify that I am not accusing Air Astana, the pilot of flight KC1388 of any wrong doing AT ALL.

It’s very likely just what it was... a complete loss of navigation / flight controls.
THAT SAID, we should NOT ignore what is right in front of our eyes and ears.

Something didn’t feel right with KC1388 and I immediately put out a WARNING thread. I rarely do that for a Squawk 7700.

This one felt wrong. Incredibly wrong. I won’t apologize for that.

It’s my opinion and belief, the POTUS was made aware of situations (some of which we will likely never know) that entered into a “threat assessment”
If the threat / risk isn’t manageable, then it is the correct action to change plans, regardless of optics.
I suppose all of this begs the question:

Did someone know of something in advance and took measures to negate the actual / perceived threat?

We have to assess things honestly, and KC1388 stands out as a BRAZEN anomaly to what we generally see.

This, in addition to its location

..... Monitoring 👀
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