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Mark Alexander #FBPE @markpalexander
, 15 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
I want to explain my stance on Putin. I love Russian people. I enjoyed my time there. I enjoyed working with Mr Putin's office. I believed Russia was a nascent democracy on a hard road and that Mr Putin, despite his tactics would take Russia to a better place.
Since then his undermining of democratic processes in France, the USA, Sweden, Spain and the UK, his violent suppression of free speech and corruption of the type targeted by #Magnitsky has become common knowledge. However, I think Mr Putin poses a more significant threat.
In 2008 Russia military had been run down and underinvested. This led to the fact that the Georgian Russian war not going the way Putin planned. He was not able to easily achieve his strategic aims. VVP sensibly committed to improving both capabilities and readiness.
He invested in weapons in both air with s400 and s500 anti-aircraft weapons and ground, created a volunteer army (as opposed to conscription) which improves focus and morale. He focussed the army on logistics and lessened the Army's reliance on rail, which can easily be destroyed
He invested in battlefield tactical nuclear weapons - Which I believe (can an expert confirm) - that field commanders can launch without further reference. This culminated in the invasion of Ukraine and was followed by operation Zapad in 2017- A mock invasion of Eastern Europe
On paper, Russia is outgunned by NATO 4 to one in airpower. But only if you include the States, and anyone who saw the Remembrance day must have some doubts would be deployed by the potentially compromised Trump.
European nations forces aren't as strong as they'd have us think. It's about the only non-economic policy point that I agree with Trump on. European nations aren't ready for the threat.
For those who think I am being overly concerned take a look at operation Zapad. It was meant to be a low-level counterterrorist operation. In fact, VVP engaged 100,000 troops across all theatres in one of the largest modern military deployments. It was a mock invasion of Belarus
If this was an anti-terror operation. He would have focussed on the Caspian area, not the Baltics. The reason he did was to role play the tank invasion of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Germany would be shelled and bombed with conventional weapons limiting NATO support
That wouldn't last long and NATO forces, if deployed by Trump would quickly drive back enemy forces. However, Putin has those battlefield and tactical nukes. He would conceivably threaten NATO forces in one or more of those Baltic states with nuclear attack.
That could fracture NATO resolve to respond. If that was the case NATO would have to respond or risk or the members and potential members losing faith.

This would weaken the West for decades.
James providing some colour on how under prepared German forces are. This of course was a peace dividend of EU and NATO solidarity. Which Brexit and Trump are destroying.
For those who think Putin is content to undermine teh West with digital mind games. Consider this. He invaded Georgia in 2008, then Ukraine in 2014 and Syria in 2015. In Syria alone he carried out 71,000 strikes.
I suppose my point is that his undermining of Western society, the refugee crisis, Brexit and military execution are part of a joined-up plan. We are programmed to think in short slices of time, this is more like continental drift. You need to step back to see it.
Just yesterday the MOD confirmed that Putin's forces jammed the GPS signals during NATO Trident Juncture exercise. Juncturecnyheter.no/nyheter/norge/…
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