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Nick Harkaway @Harkaway
, 13 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
This morning brings increasingly interesting tension in British politics.
It seems conceivable that Jolly Roger Mogg has lost his ceremonial tricorn and accidentally keel-hauled himself. That is to say there aren’t - yet - 48 MPs willing to no-conf the PM.
At the same time, the EU have made it clear that this is the WA. There is not another WA waiting to happen if we change our approach.
@GuitarMoog’s excellent thread on the referendum question applies here, too: you have to ask what’s in the EU27’s interest? They want this process done. They want damage control for EU industries etc.
Which in turn means that both the Buccaneers of Brexit in their rustbucket rinkytink dinghy of dimwits AND Jeremy Corbyn have very little space to manoeuvre.
If the EU holds on that line - which once again gives them all the cards, so why wouldn’t they? - the choice for everyone is No Deal (and if JRM et al can’t get 48 votes, they can’t expect to pull that off either) May’s Way, or Remain.
The effect that has on the priorities of Parliament’s mosaic is interesting, but to me a bit imponderable. What it does do is shift Corbyn’s calculus and put significant pressure on him.
If the Conservative Party won’t no-conf May, and the EU won’t renegotiate the WA, either the WA goes through, which starkly constrains his agenda (irony alert) AND she probably serves out her term…
Or the WA fails, she falls, and there’s every chance he has to revoke A50 or go through with No Deal.
The terrifying thing about this is that the outcome then depends almost more on everyone’s procedural footwork than on intent.
The significant danger for Corbyn is that his preoccupation with forcing an election causes him to miss the moment for a People’s Vote, resulting in either a No Deal for which he’s partly culpable.
But here’s a question for @UKLabour: at what point in all this does it become likely that the path to a General Election lies through a People’s Vote, not the other way around?
@UKLabour (Oh, drat. Two tweets back: “a No Deal for which” etc. I was going to talk about A50 revocation in Parliament, but at that point it’s moot, so I dumped it.)
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