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Horkos @WylieNewmark
, 6 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
This law will mean nothing to Russian security services that may want to steer targeted media outlets towards certain pieces of information, say to shame rival services, contained in these readily available databases. (1/x)…
Let‘s hypothesize for just a second: Say one of those contacts that gave Bellingcat passport or other key data related to the Skripal operators was controlled - directly or indirectly - by the FSB as part of an effort to embarrass the GRU as part of interservice rivalry (2/x)
In that case, the data provided by the FSB-controlled source *could’ve* been critical in nudging Bellingcat into uncovering the (apparently formulaic) method the GRU uses to build covers/legends for field officers. That could be a big win for the FSB. (3/x)
Now, a hostile (but mostly harmless) third-party can be used to do the FSB’s dirty work of making the GRU look bad. All Bellingcat has to do is keep applying the formula to investigations of old GRU activity and turn up dirt. Appears to have worked with “Popov” this week. (4/x)
While the GRU’s poor cover development program is getting picked apart, attention isn’t focused on the FSB’s separate cover program and they can say to the Kremlin, “Give *us* the sensitive stuff for the near-abroad because we don’t screw up like the GRU.” (5/x)
But this is all just a pet hypothesis of mine. There are flaws in this theory as there are in any, and plenty of variables/data points that I can’t concretely account for. But, it’s fun to think about... (6/~)
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