I’ll summarise the salient points here whilst in transit.
We would have wanted to see either a V bottom, double bottom or SFP ideally.
The low was then tested a second time - potential for double bottom. Response off of the second test was lacklustre, a weak grind upwards.
One’s default assumption should always be for continuation.
Following a period of consoldation, the more likely scenario is for continuation in the direction of the existing trend.
In absence of reversal structure, sideways PA is basically just consolidation. Consolidation typically precedes reversal.
The % drop right now is near the upper bounds of how far BTC has ever spilled without a meaningful retracement.
Furthermore, this is also a 3rd impulse down, which - if one subscribes to EW theory - should be exhaustive (at least NT).
If one insists on catching knives, I’d say aggregating bids between these levels could perhaps be a reasonable play.
Which basically means I’ll wait for high confidence bottoming structure, and then trade the best upside continuation setup I can find.