Profile picture
Lucid TA @Lucid_TA
, 13 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
I recorded a market update earlier today but unfortunately didn’t have time to post it.

I’ll summarise the salient points here whilst in transit.
Though $4k was a reasonable area to expect a potential bottom, PA proceeding the low reduced the likelihood that this would be the case.

We would have wanted to see either a V bottom, double bottom or SFP ideally.
Weakness of initial response from the low invalidated V bottom potential.

The low was then tested a second time - potential for double bottom. Response off of the second test was lacklustre, a weak grind upwards.
The more time spent near the swing low, the lower the likelihood it becomes a bottom.

One’s default assumption should always be for continuation.
In absence of high confidence bottoming structure, the reaction off of the low becomes a period of consolidation (not reversal).

Following a period of consoldation, the more likely scenario is for continuation in the direction of the existing trend.
So basically; despite the fact that $4k was a reasonable candidate for a bottom, PA didn’t form any kind of reversal structure.

In absence of reversal structure, sideways PA is basically just consolidation. Consolidation typically precedes reversal.
A bit late now, but these basic principles may be applicable to PA that is soon to manifest.
In any case, I believe there is a strong chance that we’re about to find a near-mid term bottom.

The % drop right now is near the upper bounds of how far BTC has ever spilled without a meaningful retracement.
Typically retracements from similar moves are around 50%, though they have been as shallow as 38% (fib) or as significant as 78% + (fib).

Furthermore, this is also a 3rd impulse down, which - if one subscribes to EW theory - should be exhaustive (at least NT).
There aren’t necessarily any screamingly obvious price points to look to catch knives. Though I’d say both $3600 and $3000 are potential candidates.

If one insists on catching knives, I’d say aggregating bids between these levels could perhaps be a reasonable play.
For me personally, I’m simply closing the remainder of my shorts here. And will look to enter longs in a potential first setup in a new trend.

Which basically means I’ll wait for high confidence bottoming structure, and then trade the best upside continuation setup I can find.
The micro continuation setups I mentioned in a previous tweet have all made target, BTC has also hit target.
Stay safe, stay rational, and best of luck to everyone out there! $BTC
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Lucid TA
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member and get exclusive features!

Premium member ($30.00/year)

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!