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Prosenjit Datta @ProsaicView
, 8 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Ok, some thoughts on the #GDP back series calculated by the #CSO. First, the MCA 21 database on which much of the new methodology is based simply did not exist before 2006-07....More importantly, it was not comparable before 2010-11.
Given the importance of MCA 21 for the GDP calculations, I suspect former chief statistician TCA Anant just did not want to bring out a back series when the MCA21 was not available... and the only alternate was CMIE Prowess data...
The problem that anyone will have in the current back series will not be about methodology. It will be about the assumptions and alternate data sources used for calculations because comparable data did not exist
The CSO used the splicing method for trade, restaurants, construction, hotels, agriculture and allied and a host of others. In other cases, they simply changed the data used earlier -- including NSSO rounds that were considered
In still others, like telecom, other proxies were used. Thus, in practically every case, different data sources were used to build the back series beyond 2010-11.
So is the current back series more accurate than the one calculated by the National Statistical Commission and accidentally released by the government in July before being hastily withdrawn?
That becomes a difficult question to answer. Yes the current release is official -- but is it comparable or accurate? Not particularly, given that practically all the data sources used were different for the pre-2010/11 calculations.
And that is why I suspect this will continue to generate controversy among statisticians many years from now
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