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Jim Blaine @JimBlaine
, 14 tweets, 9 min read Read on Twitter
Thread on @ncsbe not certifying @MarkHarrisNC9 @McCreadyForNC #NCPOL #NC9 election.
SUMMARY: There is evidence of absentee by mail (ABM) voting irregularities in Bladen AND Mecklenburg counties. Irregularities didn't alter election result but SHOULD be referred to US Attorney. 1/
This chart shows the percentage of votes cast by method in each county in #NC9. Note the only two counties where more than 2.8% of votes were cast ABM are Bladen 7.3% and Meck 5.8%. 2/
This chart shows the voting method statewide for the Voter ID Amendment. ABM makes up 2.6% of all #ncpol votes. /3
This chart shows the voting methods in the #NC12 congressional district which includes all of Mecklenburg County that is not in #NC09. 2.7% of all votes were ABM. /4
This chart shows the margin between the ABM votes cast for @McCreadyForNC and @MarkHarrisNC9 by county in the #NC09 #NC9 #ncpol congressional race /5
Comments: Statewide 2.6% of all voters voted ABM in 2018. In 6 of the 8 counties in #NC9, between 2.0% and 2.8% of voters cast ABM ballots. In the non-#NC9 portion of Mecklenburg County 2.7% of voters cast ABM ballots. /6
But something odd happened in Bladen County and the portion of Mecklenburg County in #NC9. 2 to 3 times the percentage of voters utilized ABM to vote. 7.3% of Bladen and 5.8% of Mecklenburg ballots being ABM is a statistically significant. /7
This could be the result of an intensive and legal effort to increase ABM voting by campaigns, groups and organizations. Or legal or ethical lines could have been crossed. Regardless, North Carolinians deserve answers. /8
The @NCSBE should seize all the ABM ballot request forms in #NC9 and turn them over to the US Attorney to investigate. They should also make sure the ballots in #NC09 are preserved and not destroyed since ABM ballots are numbered and can be tied back to a specific request. /9
The @ncsbe should go ahead and certify the #NC09 election because – as disheartening as the potential of irregularities might be – there are not enough ballots in question to change the outcome of the election. /10
Using the chart below, you can see throwing out every ABM vote for @markHarris in Bladen County wouldn’t change the election. Nor would throwing out all ABM votes in the district or in Mecklenburg county change the result. /11
To conclude, @ncsbe is right that there appear to be ABM irregularities in #NC9 and should ask the US Attorney to investigate. They should also certify the election b/c if those irregularities proved to be fraud they’re not significant enough to change the election result. /12
One more point. As my crazy liberal friend @gercohen has pointed out Bladen County ABM in the 2016 Primary were up disproportionately and hugely for Harris over @RobertPittenger. Again not enough to change outcome but eye opening. /13
There doesn’t appear to be a disproportionate share of #NCpol Mecklenburg 2016 Primary votes in #NC09 coming through ABM. This means that any ABM irregularities in Meck in General Election were almost certainly from Democratic Party ABM ballot mill.

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