His main point was that in retrospect you could predict the election based on a small number of precincts and districts.
*In 1877, Samuel Tilden won the popular vote by a whopping 3%, yet lost the electoral college. Republicans were in charge of Congress. They claimed fraud . . .
*In 1880, a mere 1,900 votes separated the winner from the loser (0.1%)
*In 1884, the separation grew to 57,000 and 0.6%, but still tiny. DemoKKKrat Grover Cleveland--the last good DemoKKKrat---won.
6) But in 1892, the margins fell again, this time because of a third party candidate, Weaver, who took 1m votes and 8%.
7) For Kleppner, each of these very close elections turned almost entirely on the "pietists" and the "liturgicals."
The 2008 election was an anomaly: the first black candidate
10) In 2016, Trump essentially won by 70,000 votes in WI, MI, and PA.
11) Now, in the midterms, the real margin in 17 seats . .
This suggests that just like in the late 1800s, there are a variety of issues that candidates must navigate and that voters are quite fickle.
12) In 2020, Rs MUST message correctly on the right issues.