๐จ๐จWe have a deal at #Eurogroup. EU leaders will sign off on an EMU package that *will* include the mention of a eurozone budget that says "stabilisation somehwere in it ! Agreement took over 15 hours
#Eurogrouo press conference with Mario Centeno is due in 45 minutes. "Surreal" is how one diplomat describes an agreement to agree things that have largely been pre-cooked for months but which finance ministers have only locked down after 15 hours at 8am in the morning
Details of #Eurogroup deal. Big flash point keeping ministers up all night was French eurozone budget. Paris will be happy that next week EU leaders have to ask for "further technical work" on a stabilisation function - but admits not all (Dutch) are convinced you need it
Vintage EU fudge on the eurozone budget: #Eurogroup statement will include mention of work on stabilisation (๐ซ๐ท), also a reinsurance element (๐ฉ๐ช), and that no-one actually agrees ๐ณ๐ฑ
How the Franco-German engine worked through the night. Diplomat says France's Bruno Le Maire made numerous threats to walk out of talks during the night. "This is the last draft". Germany's Olaf Scholz played peacemaker to get a deal: "There is no last draft". ๐ซ๐ท๐ฉ๐ช#Eurogroup
Here is the eurozone budget #fudge - something for everyone to take home #eurogroup
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NEW: Andrew Bailey and Kwasi Kwarteng attended a meeting of the G7 counterparts in Washington this afternoon, where their counterparts, led by Janet Yellen, made a number of "backhanded" swipes at events in the UK
Finance ministers, led by Yellen, warned against governments carrying out unfunded tax cuts and policies that threatened financial stability. Canada's finance minister Freedland also chipped in
The warnings were not explicitly aimed at the UK but they were clearly directed at the Brits. One diplomat said that Kwarteng and Bailey did not respond, sticking squarely to their pre-prepared scripts
Bailey admits that the Bank's emergency liquidity interventions mean that its monetary policy goals and its financial stability mandate are now running in opposite directions. This is in contrast to the last dash for cash in March 2020, when QE achieved both goals.
โผ๏ธโผ๏ธ BoE Bailey sends clear warning that BoE interventions will end on Friday. He tells funds: "You've got three days left to get this done".
Bailey's categorical warning that bond-buying will end this Friday will raise more questions about whether the Bank can still proceed with its QT programme, which is due to start on the same day as the chancellor's fiscal update, October 31
IMF has downgraded its 2023 global growth forecasts today (from slowest onwards, non exhaustive list):
๐ท๐บ -2.3%
๐ฉ๐ช -0.3%
๐ฎ๐น -0.2%
๐ธ๐ช -0.1%
๐ฌ๐ง 0.3%
๐ง๐ช 0.4%
๐ซ๐ท 0.7%
๐ณ๐ฑ 0.8%
๐บ๐ธ 1.0%
๐ง๐ท 1.0%
๐จ๐ฆ 1.5%
๐ฏ๐ต 1.6%
๐จ๐ณ 4.4%
๐ฎ๐ณ 6.1%
The ๐ฌ๐ง is due to suffer the worst average inflation rate of the advanced economies (9% in 2022, 9.1% in 2023). But the IMF forecast for a "significant slowdown" in growth does not factor in policies announced in the mini-budget on Sept 23
On the ๐ฌ๐งmini-budget, the IMF says the "sizeable" fiscal package "is expected to lift growth somewhat above the forecast in the near term, while complicating the fight against inflation."
Happy new year from Planet Brussels where this has just landed in some people's inboxes ๐ #taxonomy
A 60-page draft #taxonomy text landed in inboxes of member states minutes before 2022 struck. A "consultation" process - which does not involve MEPs - will run until mid Jan. Some highlights on what's included ๐
Commission stresses that on nuclear energy and fossil gas there are "rapid technological" developments occuring.
On โข๏ธ, draft paves the way for awarding the green label as long as MS can provide plans for safe waste management and a 100g per KW of CO2 is not exceeded
German Greens have won the right to propose the country's next EU commissioner. There has been an expectation that VDL would serve two terms. It's a canny move which will mean VDL will feel obliged to keep Greens on side for next 2.5 years.
Pilling pressure on VDL already, vice chair of Greens speculates how "cool" it would be to have a Green European Commission President
One suggestion is that VDL could secure Greens support if she agrees to stand on a transnational list at next EU elections. Thus far, debate over pan-EU lists has been killed by VDL's centre right EPP party
France's finance minister has arrived at the #Eurogroup fuming at the state of EU energy market rules calling them "unfit for purpose" after energy price rises have "become unbearable for our citizens and businesses"
Le Maire will be teaming up with Spain's Nadia Calvino today to demand Brussels reform EU energy market rules to better regulate gas stocks and scrap a marginal pricing system so price of electricity production in each MS reflects costs for consumers ft.com/content/463d0eโฆ
Commission's initial response - a flexibilities paper laying out what gov's can do - is unlikely to satiate French or Spanish asks. Worsening prices over winter risks poisoning Europe's fiscal and climate policy debate ft.com/content/5805c3โฆ