The narrative big media is ready to fight back is just not yet true
AT&T can only speculate for them and NFLX
Well a Netflix bid marked it to market, so AT&T could just pay the 7-14%. They'll need to do so next year for Warner SVOD anyway. Not a real blocker
Right way to think about it is "Subscriber Acquisition Costs". Warner will spend a lot to drive subs to HBO and their new service. This $100MM is chump change on SAC (Netflix spent $2B this year)
Market values typically values a sub at $1000 LTV. This means Friends would have to drive 100k net adds to HBO in 2019, or 100k incremental to Warner VOD in 2020 due to it missing in 2019. Easy. It's one of the most valuable titles of all time.
It may be $100MM, but the question is priorities and commitment
But the very case here is much bigger, much more significant.
Saying "we've learned our lesson, we're done licensing.... soon, we promise" isn't great in 2019.
FRIENDS is a top 3 show on the world's largest video distributor. But my notifications are FULL of hatred towards it.