Profile picture @mcm_ct
, 21 tweets, 7 min read Read on Twitter


Let’s start with structure...The 2nd leg down out a major high is usually more impulsive (trendy) than the 1st leg. The minimum structure for price travel is a zig-zag or 3 waves. The 3rd wave is almost always stronger than the 1st of a zig zag. $SPX

This chart has significant timing implications as expectation is to have similar proportions in time BUT STRONGER TRAVEL in price - using this basis its possible to estimate a drop into the 12th which is a Geometrics timing +/- 1.5 days for us for a long time as u know.

A bounce would be likely from the 12th +/- 1.5 days into christmas (the infamous Santa rally people fail to properly understand) and then a drop to 2100s to 2300s into January 2 or so

keep in mind this is all speculation, but educated speculation not random guesses...these things may or may not happen but if the markets gap below 2628 & start dropping then odds favor this downside structure imo

The $WMT to $NDX bear market pattern we have been pointing to for months is now in full swing and something to keep an eye on. $WMT tends to rally as people move from luxury purchases to more cost effective general lifestyle purchases

Lumber ( $WOOD ) could not catch a bid last week and this is a significant problem - after a 25% markdown one would expect a growing economy to see this discount as a positive BUT THAT IS NOT THE CASE when an economy is contracting which appears to be the situation presently

Risk aversion toward high quality dividend paying $SPX components continues its breakout...this is going to go on for a while folks! Check out 2007/08 on this chart, that’s where we are but imo worse

$SPX is on a critical ledge after having previously broken significant support now its standing on MAJOR support, so if this breaksdown there is not a lot to hold markets up until much lowed imo

$VIX is setup in a bull flag (a perfect & rather bullish looking one) with $SPX is sitting on major support - looks like trouble if $VIX gets moving

$SPX failure to be able to hit obvious stops on the upside is a big problem - conversely it has been able to hit long sell stops as evidenced by the significant lower lows

Running Correction Watch...

Nasdaq $COMP is sporting a perfect looking running correction and clearly showing a urgent priority towards deleveraging...this is very very very very bearish if it breaks down esp on a daily chart

$SPYB S&P0500 buyback index continues to underperform which is not a good sign for what was artificial leadership previously and suggests that the deleveraging from that #FAKE earnings manipulation & stock price manipulation is on-going

$PKW one can see just how great the deleveraging is for these selfserving c-suites who decided to self-immolate their own firms for their own short-term comp gains...hopefully ppl go to jail

Imagine: THEY SAID NOV & DEC would be most bullish ever because of buybacks. WRONG!

The yearly chart of $INDU is sporting a rather interesting candle

The professional market $OEX and especially its options market is something everyone should watch. Participants bought lots of puts at the top and there is precious little emotion in this market at present prices

There is NOTHING extreme about the 10 day new lows on the $NYSE - nothing yet and its going to require a number of big new low days to start getting this index moving into an emotional zone

AGAIN volume on declining issues is leading the actual advance/decline line lower by the strongest amount in years $SPX

High $ARMS values are almost always associated w mean-reversion bounces. Human nature often fails to see the regular instances where these highly emotional outbursts are triggers to large price moves when the level that triggers is broken down - esp b4 bear markets $SPX

For reference, here are the $ARMS indexes BEFORE the 1987 crash $SPX $INDU

This is NOT a picture a market in fear...its a picture of extreme complacency in front of imo epic risk $SPX $INDU
That’s it for now
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member and get exclusive features!

Premium member ($30.00/year)

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!