Historic electoral outcomes and participation for a basket of peer countries? Luckily other people collect that data, but the formatting is BLEH.
Well, it's complicated, but *basically* it comes from a specific intuition about how districted elections work.
But what if A is 60%?
A should win *more than* 60% of seats.
So why don't I use this estimate, or the related "wasted votes" calculation?
1. These calculations come with the tacit assumption that *partisan support will be quasi-randomly distributed*. I do not acknowledge the philosophical view that sectional parties should be viewed as inefficient to be valid.
Enjoy the piece. It took a lot of work. I'm sure somebody will find something in it I did wrong; in a piece this long with this many unfamiliar calculations, there's sure to be something I could have done better.
That's fair and I actually agree.
1. That's very hard to measure. The *ideal* way we would do this would be to take every Rep and Senator's DW Nominate score and election history, and see if bins of left/middle/right tend to have received more/less votes per seat.