Thread by @EricPaulDennis

I would like to offer some clarity regarding what @Waymo is doing in Arizona with the new Waymo One service and other efforts.

(Short thread)

We can divide Waymo's activities into three categories:
1) Pseudo Level 4 Training
2) Pseudo Level 4 Demonstration
3) True Level 4 Testing

These are important because they have distinct purposes and likely use different variations of the software.

Category 1) Pseudo Level 4 Training:
Waymo, previously Google, has been doing this since 2010 or so, continues to do so, and will keep doing so in some respect for as long as the self-driving program exists because this is important to improving and refining the software.

This could be further broken down into different eras of the self-driving car program in terms of different geographies, operational domains, etc.

Like, for a while in 2012 they apparently allowed normal Google employees to commute in self-drive mode after like 2 hours of training. That seems bananas now. They thought so too and stopped doing that. They didn't tell anyone about that until months after they had stopped. Cool

That would actually probably have been considered pseudo level 3, it doesn't matter. The SAE levels aren't very rationally applicable to prototypes. Anyway the employees were supposed to basically be safety drivers but engineers checked the videos and the obviously weren't (duh).

Anyway, there was also that brief period where they used the Koala ("Firefly") cars. Still pseudo level 4, but a distinct program because they were legally capped at 25 mph and could only drive on roads of 35 mph or less.

technologyreview.com/s/527756/lazy-…

They stopped using those cars because the limitations of the software combined with 25 mph cap made people hate them passionately.

In May 2015, Google opened a forum where people could publicly comment about how they felt about seeing the li'l bubble cars floating around Mountain View.

theverge.com/2015/6/25/8846…

That comment page went exactly how you would expect and it disappeared in a couple weeks.

https://twitter.com/EricPaulDennis/status/627155854484238338

OK, Category 2) Pseudo Level 4 demo:

This started with the announcement of the Waymo "Early Riders Program." A few hundred pre-selected residents of metro Phoenix were allowed to use the cars as a sort of taxi-service within a subset of the pseudo level 4 training area.

The Early Rider trips almost certainly use a different, more conservative version of the self-driving software. They're also within a subset of the broader geofence that has been more validated through pseudo level 4 training.

medium.com/waymo/waymos-e…

No one knows for sure what the goefence or other operational limitations are, how many volunteers are involved, or what kind of miles are being driven within this demonstration program. Again there's a safety driver and no one knows how often they have to intervene.

This month, December 2018, Waymo released a new app and sub-brand within the pseudo level 4 demo activities.

They call it Waymo One.

Nothing. Else. Changed.

medium.com/waymo/riding-w…

In theory, some early riders have been moved over to Waymo One. In theory, they are no long bound by a non-disclosure agreement. In theory, these people exist.

arstechnica.com/cars/2018/12/w…

Oh, in theory they would also have to pay to use Waymo One. But the service is worse than Uber and the cost is about the same. So maybe that's why no one seems to be using it.

cnet.com/roadshow/news/…

Finally, Category 3) True Level 4 Testing

Beginning November 2017, Waymo began operating cars with a Waymo employee in the passenger seat, NOT behind the wheel. The employee would not be able to intervene in an emergency situation. This is true level 4!

medium.com/waymo/with-way…

This occurred in an even more restricted subset of the operational domain. Maybe just a few streets, no one knows. We also don't know how often they did it, how many cars were doing this, or if there were any non-Waymo passengers.

This was a big deal. The very first true level 4 deployment. Very limited, not public, not revenue creating, but still! This was the Kitty-hawk moment for self-driving cars!

True level 4 testing was suspended in November 2018. There is no announced timeline to resume.

Once again, there are no self-driving vehicles deployed anywhere in the world (on public roads, sans safety driver).

The true level 4 testing ended because it was not an efficient use of resources. It was using a very conservative driving algorithm within a very limited and simple operational domain. Waymo was not learning anything from doing this. This was not helping them progress.

Waymo redeployed resources to the pseudo level 4 training activities in an attempt to accelerate development of the ADS such that they can have true level 4 operation with a *useful* context.

There wasn't a pressing safety issue with the true level 4 activities, so they will probably skootch over to the passenger seat occasionally, just to show off. But as a formal activity, true level 4 is gone for now, for Waymo, for Phoenix, for Earth.

I quick sketched this timeline out to help keep this straight. Sorry it's crap. Maybe I'll formalize it if I have a reason.

So basically,

Waymo One is a non-story.

The suspension of true level 4 testing should have been a bigger story.

Waymo is still far ahead of anyone else, but still a while away from introducing a real level 4 service. A long time away from doing so at scale.

[fin]

Correction on one thing: It seems that at least some Early Riders do pay for at least some rides.