1/ Let's have a look at this recurring argument that only a no deal outcome creates legal certainty.
It's nonsense. Exactly the opposite is the case.
It's nonsense. Exactly the opposite is the case.
2/ It would be far more legally certain to Remain in the EU, especially since the CJEU has clarified that the UK can revoke its notification unilaterally and stay in the EU with the same legal status.
3/ The withdrawal agreement is also a more legally certain outcome than no deal. That's what you get from a 500+ page legal text.
In the medium term the WA is less legally certain than Remain, since the future relationship with the EU after the transition period isn't certain.
In the medium term the WA is less legally certain than Remain, since the future relationship with the EU after the transition period isn't certain.
4/ But until the end of the transition period, which can be extended, the withdrawal agreement is nearly as legally certain as Remain.
Let's look at what that means in practice. First of all, either Remain or the WA sets out specified rights for @The3Million & @BritishInEurope
Let's look at what that means in practice. First of all, either Remain or the WA sets out specified rights for @The3Million & @BritishInEurope
5/ But there are loads of other issues. There's a huge chunk of the withdrawal agreement that sets out "separation provisions" for the end of the transition period. It starts with a lengthy section on what to do with goods on the market already.
6/ There are also detailed rules on: ongoing customs procedures; ongoing VAT and excise matters; intellectual property rights; police & criminal law cooperation; civil & commercial litigation; public procurement; personal data; Euratom; and ending links with the EU institutions.
7/ Without these rules - 86 Articles of the withdrawal agreement - there will be all sorts of complex legal questions to be sorted out.
For instance, are European arrest warrants issued in the UK valid in the EU27, and vice versa? Can fugitives still be detained on this basis?
For instance, are European arrest warrants issued in the UK valid in the EU27, and vice versa? Can fugitives still be detained on this basis?
8/ This example is hardly hypothetical: there have been a number of Irish cases already on this issue because Brexit is pending. The CJEU ruled on the point, saying that the UK is still covered by EU law until Brexit, but a no deal Brexit raises new legal arguments.
9/ And keep in mind, no deal Brexit is never sold as such, because its supporters know that it's crap. Instead, they advocate a Managed Super Canada Get Down Funky+++ no deal Brexit
10/ This seems to entail all sorts of er, deals with the EU. These only exist in no deal fans' heads, but whether they do or don't happen, we can hardly describe this scenario as the only legally certain outcome.
11/ As for the economic dimension, I will give them this: a no deal Brexit will give us the certainty of playing Russian roulette with a fully loaded gun, instead of the uncertainty of a single bullet.
They know this: hence the invention of Big Ass Sexy Unicorn+++ no deal Brexit
They know this: hence the invention of Big Ass Sexy Unicorn+++ no deal Brexit
12/ Bottom line: a no deal Brexit is radically legally uncertain, vastly more so than the other two outcomes. Anyone claiming the opposite is lying or ignorant on a logarithmic scale. This spectacular level of dishonesty can only be met with contempt. ///
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