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Pete North @PeteNorth303
, 25 tweets, 5 min read Read on Twitter
1. #Brexit was never an economic proposition but that doesn't mean we can simply disregard the economic concerns. They are both real and urgent. Our future trade and geostrategic position matters - and for Brexit to be workable long term we need to be mindful of that.
2. On that score we need to start from a position of relative strength - which we won't if we leave without a deal. We'll be taking a hit of anywhere up to 200bn a year in trade by way of losing critical single market participation. That's a substantially weaker starting position
3. Much of our trade is interwoven. It's not a matter of shipping a tin of beans from point A to point B. Complex products are only worth selling if you can sell the service contracts that go with them - and that means being able to dispatch engineers.
4. This is why we need a deal leading to an FTA because at the very least it will cover movement of workers for specific work purposes. WTO doesn't cover that at all. Nor does it compel the EU to recognise UK conformity to standards.
4. For all the blether about tariff free trade it's the regulatory barriers and the delays of inspections and the customs formalities that accumulate to become greater problem than tariffs thus destroying UK competitiveness. We will be subject to full third country controls.
5. By crashing out without a transition we have no continuity and it immediately terminates all of our third country FTAs. Any rollovers we get will only be temporary where other countries will not wish to maintain trade deals on the same basis when we do not have SM access,
6. Our starting point, therefore, is the UK being excluded from EU services markets, facing full controls and inspections at the borders, huge delays and considerable registration overheads. We'll be in need of any deals we can get.
7. Since we already have FTAs or enhanced trade relationships with most major countries via the EU, there is no combination of new FTAs or even optimised FTAs that can even begin to replace the trade lost with the EU. This precisely where we don't want to be.
8. The contingency measures announced by the EU are only temporary and only relevant to ro-ro trade which is less than 10% of our overall trade. This doesn't cover anything like certifications and authorisations long term so our aviation services sector is killed stone dead.
9. In no way do these measure evade the cliff edge. The EU has said it will do only what is needed to keep the most basic airline routes open but any enhances participation in the EU air market has to be part of a bilateral agreement that could take years to formalise.
10. And then there's fishing. UK boats will not be allowed to land a catch or make use of continental processing plants until there is a formal agreement which will require the mutual agreement of a fisheries sustainability regime. So no deal will kill fishing as well.
11. Trade is more than what you think it is. It is multiple tiers of economic activity all interwoven and part of a continental regulatory ecosystem. The regulation is not "red tape burden". It is the WD40 of modern commerce. It facilitates trade.
12. The smoke and mirrors of the ERG is all misdirection. They have successfully framed the trade debate in terms of tariffs which is less than a tenth of the issues. Value is added from all kinds of agreements between government agencies and universities and standards bodies.
13. The trade debate focuses on FTAs when there are several types of agreement, many of which never make the news but have more profound impact on GDP. Coordination between standards bodies can double a geographic market size.
14. The EU is essentially 40 years of amalgamated cooperation - all evolved with the UK as a participant. No deal means we are on the outside of all of those systems and re-establishing those links will not be easy or quick. We will, therefore, be in a state of trade limbo.
15. Just today I was accused of seeking to complicate things with detail - but that's what modern trade is. Detail. There is no simplifying the inherently complex and detailed trade schemas between government is not replaced by optimism and "common sense".
16. There seems to be a view that the consequences of no deal are so bad that nobody would let it happen. But that's why we are having these negotiations. To stop those bad things happening. Without a deal those things categorically will happen - automatically.
17. We are told that BMW will race to our rescue because they still want to sell their cars. But german suppliers to assembly lines are very happy indeed to cut the UK out of the loop. More jobs for them. they have lobbyists too.
18. This whole no deal enterprise seems to revolve around things happening in good faith - yet what good faith can we expect from the EU by leaving a giant hole in their finances and a regulatory gap in the NI frontier? None whatsoever.
19. It also appears to be contingent on French farmers and German car makers lobbying for UK interests. Does that really sound like a clever idea to you? Since when have French farmers done us any favours? they are the first to block the ports in a strike.
20. The notion that we can have a "managed no deal" is the biggest crock of bullshit I have ever seen in my adult lifetime. All its advocates are universally know-nothing tories who two years ago had never even heard of a non tariff barriers.
21. They display an extraordinary ignorance of how trade works and how EU trade functions, and yet by reciting a few bits of terminology they stumbled upon they expect us to believe they have the necessary expertise to rescue the situation.
22. JRM and his cronies are blowhards. There are lost tribes in the Bornean rainforest who know more about EU trade than them. Redwood is a liar, Baker is a crook and Paterson is an oaf who agrees with the last person he spoke to. And he's surrounded by morons.
23. The Tory leave brigade haven't been able to muster a single expert to speak in support of their theories. The IEA is full of cranks and not one of their number has ever been employed in a serious international trade endeavour. They're an embarrassment to think tanks.
24. Course, this is a waste of breath because the the Brexit headbangers in these parts believe that anybody against no deal is secretly a remoaner or simply doesn't believe hard enough. This is a cultish devotion that does not respond to reason.
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