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Alex Krüger 🇦🇷 @Crypto_Macro
, 10 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
1/ #Ethereum's Constantinople fork is coming on block 7080000, around January 16, 2019. Constantinople will reduce the block rewards from 3 to 2, decreasing new $ETH supply accordingly.

On the long run, this is decidedly bullish.

2/ The block rewards reduction was decided on Aug/31 => should have been priced in.

However, exact timing was unknown. Implementation was initially delayed to end of January, and the date (or block, to be precise) was only agreed upon on Dec/7.

3/ Some believe the current outsized $ETH bull run (outsized in relation to $BTC, which has only bounced "mildly" off the lows) is due to the Constantinople fork. It should be noted price spiked on the 7th yet then kept dropping for eight days after the block (date) was decided.
4/ Others believe the main driver of this bull-run is Lubin's bottom call, made on Dec/21. In the 3 days since the bottom call $ETH is up 43%, while $BTC is up 3%.

5/ This chart shows a history of new $ETH supply per day, with the reasons for the changes:

- Homestead (bullish, pre-fork only)
- Ice Age (possibly bullish before and during - impossible to isolate its impact)
- Byzantium (seemingly no impact)
6/ On the Homestead fork, $ETH increased by 1150% in the two months prior (in both USD and BTC terms, as $BTC was relatively flat during that period). Price started a 50% reversal the day of the fork.

Not suggesting one should expect the same - different market, different times.
7/ The effects of the temporary 2017 ice age (i.e. exponential mining difficulty increases) started being felt on April 2017. It is hard to isolate the ice age's price impact, as all of crypto started a raging bull market at the time for multiple reasons.
8/ The Bizantium fork, despite reducing the block reward from 5 to 3, actually increased the new $ETH supply per day by postponing the ice age. It seemingly had no price impact.
9/ After Constantinople, assuming $ETH around here ($155), only pro miners with electricity above $0.075 would be operating at a loss. Meanwhile, hobbyist miners don't care as much about operating at a profit or loss.

=> doesn't look like fork will be painful for many.
By the way difficulty and breakevens change often and significantly. That $155 is not that meaningful. Mentioning it for illustration purposes.
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