Profile picture
mcm-ct.com @mcm_ct
, 45 tweets, 18 min read Read on Twitter
Let’s Get this Chart Storm STORMING...

1/

The most optimism in over 5 years - nothing to see here
2/

Since we are on the subject of sentiment and internal health/state of the markets

This swing in the equity options markets is off the scale manic. From very high put buying to very high call buying in 2 bars!!! $SPX
3/

But that’s not all. $VIX is not agreeing with options players - so someone is wrong. Possibly the manic maniacs? Your guess is as good as ours $SPX
4/

On the subject of $VIX the $SPX move is being doubted by #VIX (and as shown in a later chart the $VIX of the $VIX: $VXX)
5/

Participation does not suggest that the ebullient manic buyers are placing their bets with discipline - its all emotion. $SPX
6/

$SPX and $NYSE did not even get very oversold so far
/7

So, lets look a little closer. The $ARMS index DID NOT make a significant high at the lows and more significantly the Nasdaq $TRIN did not even reach levels seen in normal bull market pullbacks...does this strike you as the makings of a long lasting low?
/8

On this subject BEAR MARKETS tend to start on a bout of significantly increasing NEW HIGHS MINUS LOWS but also tend to make lows with similar levels as they start them with of the average of the first two swings down $SPX #NYHL

THIS IS THE BEGINNING NOT THE END
9/

RUNNING CORRECTION WATCH

SETTING OF THE TRAP & THE RUG PULL #COMPQ $COMPQ $SPX
10/

RUNNING CORRECTION WATCH

Here is a closer look $COMPQ $SPX
11/

Resistances...well on the way down these were significant, suggests $SPX will be capped in a significant way by 2560s IF THE HIGHS WERE NOT ALREADY PUT IN in on Friday. We had timing for Friday but if $SPX wants to hold up, 1st trading day of 2019 is poss & then get slammed
12/

Resistances

$NYSE has a significant gap over head. Its not been in the practice of filling its gaps and seems like though this is a target may be a tough order for the index
13/

Resistances and supports

For $INDU $SPX $COMPQ $RUT $MID here are some very long-term resistance and support levels
14/

On the subject of levels...the measured move down for the $SPX was NOT met which further sows doubt about a sustainable low being in imo
15/

Internals are not helping and internals of internals are further not helping $NYSE #AdvanceDecline $SPX
17/

A closer look at #equity #putcall ratios $SPX
18/

A/D readings are NOT emblematic of bullishness usually accompanying reversals off a big low $NYA $NYSE
19/

Major $SKEW pattern breakdown has occurred and appears to be emmulating the 2007 episode $SPX
20/

A most interesting chart of the various $VIX incarnations $SPX
21/

Have another 25 or so charts to post - will do so around the European open - it’s presently 2:30 AM here in Munich

Catch you all in a few hours!
21/

On the subject of Framing, the weekly NYSE highs-lows index. On the 1st break below the 200 SMA for the $SPX the H-L intensity of the break is kicks off the Bear & requires a similar amount of energy to end it...if today’s kick off is any indication - prepare for a doozy
22/

So how bad is it? Well, each crisis (being @federalreserve caused) has required more artificial creditcreation to recover, which has resulted in worse breadth as markets deteriorate. So far, 2018 is worst of the lot which is not a good omen thanks to @neelkashkari & his gang
23/

Each bear market has started from and proceeded to a weaker position in-terms of health, breadth and participation than the previous. So far, 2018 is making previous bear’s look like amateurs imo $SPX
24/

$SPX vs $SPXEW (Equal Weight) and $DJW Dow Jones World index is showing one worse than the other in terms of negative divergence and also is showing very negative PMO oscillator moves (getting ready to breakdown) and Bear market fingerprints on the Stochastics
25/

Breadth & sentiment ratios do not agree with bulls here and suggest that headline perceptions regarding this bounce are unfounded if not completely inappropriate $SPX $NYSE #PutCall $NYAD
27/

$VXO vs $VIX shows a closing higher high vs $SPX lower lows this is bearish and supports a further breakout in Volatility as we now sport higher highs and higher lows on the $VXO
28/

$BANK and $TRAN are dramatically underperforming $SPX and diverging on this bounce - it should be the exact opposite if this was an important low
29/

$AUDUSD is missing in action vs $SPX
30/

$OIL #CL_F - saying same thing as #AUDUSD - both are missing in action exactly at time they would be most required to lead in order to bolster a low. Implication to us is fairly directly lower $OIL #CL_F and $AUDUSD which should also lead #equities down the yellow brick road
31/

$SPXHBI High Beta vs $SPX Tell two completely different stories /1
32/

$SPXHBI vs $SPX a closer look...

The High Beta index is showing a clear resistance around 2% from Friday’s close and that would appear to be a pretty hard wall to break over imo
33/

Lumber $WOOD continues to demonstrate that there is something wrong in the global economy and most certainly in the large developed economies
34/

Interest rates...

Let’s consult Dr Copper $COPPER $TNX $SPX
35/

Interest rates...

Let’s consult $XLF and $KRE...hmmm

Seems like these professionals seem to think rates have a long way to go down...in the context of bear markets this implies the bear is just beginning and has a long way to go for rather to come down this significantly
36/

Interest rates & $VIX are painting a very similar picture vs $SPX - and its not a good one
37/

China $QQQ is saying “Not so fast” USA #QQQ
38/

China China China...is the USA about to catch down to the horrendous over levered insolvent in a depression economy & stock market of China? Well, if this gauge is correct, some sort of catch-down is already in progress $SPX $SSEC
39/

Between $ZINC $KOSPI & $SSEC the average present implication is around 2000ish for $SPX but since these are all likely to drop further near-term that avg target is likely to come down too
/40

So, what does point an figure have to say?

Well: 1850 $SPX
41/

Weekly, $ARMS index is painting a similar picture as in 2007/08
42/

@GoldmanSachs can not get off the mat @DeutscheBank & $GS appear to be connected somehow

Problem!!
43/

The big picture $INDU $DOW #DOW

This could get downright ugly
43/

CREDIT CREDIT CREDIT

Some near-term disagreement BUT when credit decides the $SPX will turn...we are supposing that this implies a possible push to 2530 to 2560s ish and then a rather unwelcome greeting early in 2019 $TLI $FTSL $TSLF
That’s all for us folks...

please be careful out there and be sure to review the whole thread...as this morning we added 25 or so charts/posts
44/

Forgot one chart...

Commodities/Commodity Currencies and the #Yen & #Yuan all painting a precarious picture for risk $SPX unless something dramatic changes
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to mcm-ct.com
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member and get exclusive features!

Premium member ($30.00/year)

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!