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Thomas C. Theiner @noclador
, 7 tweets, 10 min read Read on Twitter
Having a good time with #NewYearsEve?
Let me ruin it with this map of the military situation in Eastern Europe, which shows us:

1) #Russia's massive military buildup vs. #Ukraine & #Europe: 33x brigades & 35x regiments. (@USarmy in total: 31x brigades & 7x regiments/groups)

2) If #Russia annexes #Belarus, then #Putin will forward deploy his tanks to #Poland's border & the doorstep of #Lithuania's capital #Vilnius. He will also threaten #Ukraine's capital #Kyiv from the #North and it will be easy for Russian troops to close the #Suwalki Gap.

3) #Poland's best brigades are based near #Germany. They must move East to protect #Warsaw & be an operational reserve to come to the aid of #Lithuania. Poland also needs more tanks; & modern attack helicopters, infantry fighting vehicles, fighters, guided missile artillery.

4) There is only 1x @USArmy brigade near the Eastern European theater & it depends on the goodwill of #Germany or #Czechia to be able to reach Poland. That brigade is too lightly equipped for a fight with #Russia. Committing it will be bloody. Armored brigades are needed!!

5) Ideally #Poland & the #US agree on:
a) Poland buys #US equipment for its military
b) Poland moves at least 3x brigades East
c) the @USArmy will base 2x Armored, 1x Field Artillery, 1x Aviation, 1x Air Defense brigade in Poland as soon as #Putin moves into #Belarus.

6) Personally I hope that #NATO will fast-track #Ukraine to membership if #Russia annexes #Belarus. Because as soon as a NATO/Ukraine mechanized corps takes up residence between #Zhytomyr & #Kyiv that Belarus salient becomes nothing but a giant death trap for Putin's troops.

7) Lastly the map shows us two more things:
a) what city of #Ukraine #Putin craves most: #Kharkiv
b) who #Putin is most afraid of: #Moscow's citizens. Over 50,000 combat troops encircle the city & there can be no doubt, that when the people rise up, he will shoot them.

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